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Search: Posts Made By: Cobra
Forum: Probability 07-03-2007, 01:17 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 54
Posted By Cobra
Re: Odds of at least 1 player of 6 having pocket pair

I did not check your math but the formula you are using is correct. As you stated this is a good approximation. By using inclusion-exclusion with five terms you can get an exact answer. This would...
Forum: Probability 07-02-2007, 05:54 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 38
Posted By Cobra
Hand Range Poker Program

Does anyone know of a program similar to pokerstove where you can put in a hand range and it will give you how many combinations that is. You would also put flop cards into the program and it would...
Forum: Probability 07-02-2007, 02:21 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 97
Posted By Cobra
Re: Odds of set over set are???

I think we sometimes underestimate the probability of a set over set. What we really need to think about is how wide is the range of hands that our opponent played and how does the flop fit into...
Forum: Probability 05-09-2007, 02:44 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 51
Posted By Cobra
Re: Bad thread title - attempt to rephrase the question

If you are observing a game and player one only plays AA and player two only plays AK or KQ and both players have bet. Player two has AK 8/24 and KQ 16/24, or put it another way he will have KQ...
Forum: Probability 05-02-2007, 04:46 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 77
Posted By Cobra
Re: AAKKKK 3 handed

I came up with a different answer but I am not positive about this. Hopefully someone else will check my math and correct me if it is wrong.

There are 52c6 flops and 4c4*4c2 number of ways to...
Forum: Probability 03-27-2007, 10:46 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 52
Posted By Cobra
Re: more than a pair

I will answer the probability of hitting two pair, three of a kind, a full house or four of a kind.

Using combinations = ((6c2)*44 + (6c3)) / (50c3)

This is equal to 3.5%.

Cobra
Forum: Probability 03-21-2007, 11:16 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 100
Posted By Cobra
Re: A very quick way to derive pre-flop odds (feedback appreciated)

This is an approximation to hit one or more of your outs.

Cobra
Forum: Probability 03-21-2007, 11:13 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 100
Posted By Cobra
Re: A very quick way to derive pre-flop odds (feedback appreciated)

A good approximation of when you will hit your hand on the flop is 5.5% per out. This will give you an answer within 1% from 2-6 outs. As previously said the river is between 8 and 9% per out. Use...
Forum: Probability 03-21-2007, 11:00 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 58
Posted By Cobra
Re: Flush odds doubt usign cond. probability

The prob of seeing a flush pre-flop and no flush cards on turn and river is (11c3)*(39c2)/(50c5)

This is actually the probability to getting exactly three of your suit by the river, in any order....
Forum: Probability 03-10-2007, 10:54 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 54
Posted By Cobra
Re: AJJ board, probability of Jx vs 6 players?

There are 47 unknown cards - 2 jacks and 45 other cards.

The probability that one or more of your six opponents was dealt at least one jack is 1- (47c12/45c12) = 45%

Cobra
Forum: Probability 02-15-2007, 10:09 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 258
Posted By Cobra
Re: Help with formula: Likelihood of ovecards flopping

I will give you an example of one pair of cards. You can easily due a hole spread sheet in excel.

You have 55

There is 9 ranks above 5 for a total of 36 cards
There is two other fives
There...
Forum: Poker Theory 02-09-2007, 05:05 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 60
Posted By Cobra
Floating

I have often read that someone was floating when they called a bet. Does the term mean calling a bet with the intention of trying to win the hand with a bet after the next card or does it mean...
Forum: Poker Theory 02-07-2007, 08:52 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 104
Posted By Cobra
Re: EV of Limping with PP after Limpers

I might try this out but I want to make sure I understand your assumptions before I try. I have not looked at your chart but in your description you say that there are two limpers. I thought that...
Forum: Probability 02-07-2007, 02:35 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 40
Posted By Cobra
Re: Probabillity of someone has 2pair + on the flop?

You are UTG and limp with AA. Your five opponents all call. The flop comes J72 rainbow. You are losing to anyone who was dealt JJ, 77, J7, J2, and 72 and played them.

Using inclusion/exclusion...
Forum: Probability 02-06-2007, 10:26 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 55
Posted By Cobra
Re: Probability that someone else has an A

Assuming you have AX, there are 3 aces remaining and 47 non aces. Remember the probability that one or more of your opponents holds something is the same as 1- the probability that they do not hold...
Forum: Probability 01-25-2007, 08:42 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 57
Posted By Cobra
Re: Still licking my wounds.

It looks like a made an error in my computation but I cannot see it. Can someone point it out to me.

Thank you,

Cobra
Forum: Probability 01-25-2007, 05:56 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 57
Posted By Cobra
Re: Still licking my wounds.

Sorry the *9 in this is 9 opponents, if you have less opponents you would multiply by that number.
Forum: Probability 01-25-2007, 05:55 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 57
Posted By Cobra
Re: Still licking my wounds.

Lets assume you start with AA, and the board ends up ATTXX were x's are not paired and are not a ten or ace. There is only one hand that beets you, that is TT.

Probability of losing to TT in this...
Forum: Probability 01-08-2007, 01:28 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 58
Posted By Cobra
Re: AJo vs J9s

This is very opponent dependent and it is hard to give you a good answer. Some things to consider.

1. How does AJ fit the range of hands your opponent limped in with. If he is very tight and...
Forum: Probability 01-08-2007, 12:17 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 58
Posted By Cobra
Re: AJo vs J9s

You have flopped the second nut straight and you are wondering the probability of someone having the nut straight and your already loosing. You can solve this using inclusion/exclusion.

You have...
Forum: STT Strategy 11-14-2006, 11:22 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 24
Posted By Cobra
Re: KT on the button

Thanks, result oriented thinking.

Cobra
Forum: STT Strategy 11-14-2006, 11:08 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 24
Posted By Cobra
KT on the button

In a home tourney with the following situation.

Blinds: 300/600 going to 400/800 in 10 minutes.
Payout Structure: 60/30/10

Button: 4000
Small Blind: 4000
Big Blind: 3000
Cutoff +1: ...
Forum: Probability 10-30-2006, 01:11 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 53
Posted By Cobra
Re: A question about AA v. KK for the prob. forum

Your UTG and look down at KK's, the probability that one or more of your nine remaining opponents has aces are as follows.

First term

=6/(50c2)*9 = .04408

Second term =...
Forum: Home Poker 09-10-2006, 01:24 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 83
Posted By Cobra
Re: Settle a home poker game rule argument

One of the ways to settle this type of problem is to use Roberts Rules as your official home game set of rules and then make any adjustments you feel are required.

Roberts Rules states that at the...
Forum: Probability 08-26-2006, 07:27 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 90
Posted By Cobra
Re: Pascals triangle

Yes BruceZ I did get this from you. It was about two years ago and when I searched for it I was unable to find it. You were answering some questions on inclusion-exlusion. I thought I remembered...
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