AJo vs J9s

[threeducks]

Does anyone know how often Q9 will lose to AJ (100%) when they both flop KJT. What I mean is how often will some one hold AJ when you hold J9 on this flop - does it matter in the long run?

Assume 1) you were BB and got a free flop and 2) that the Turn and River are blanks.

Thanks

[pzhon]

Your title doesn't match your hand description, and your assumptions don't make sense.

In general, you should use a tool like www.twodimes.net/poker or PokerStove to answer these types of questions, e.g., pair+gutshot vs. flopped straight.

[threeducks]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know how often Q9 will lose to AJ (100%) when they both flop KJT. What I mean is how often will some one hold AJ when you hold J9 on this flop - does it matter in the long run?

Assume 1) you were BB and got a free flop and 2) that the Turn and River are blanks.

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] thanks

I was in a hurry and I mucked it up - you have J9c and the flop is KQT rainbow. You have a King high straight.

What I was asking is what is the probability of you one opponent having AJ ?

1/169? or 12/1326?

Does it matter? Are you going to assume that you have the best hand most of the time?

They bet and you call all the way to the river? Raise and fold to a re-raise?

That is my question(s).

I do not think that two dimes will give me that number since the other player's hand is unknown?

It happened to me and I was just wondering. I would think it would be a rare occurrence and you should think that your straight is good most of the time? 95% ??

[Cobra]

You have flopped the second nut straight and you are wondering the probability of someone having the nut straight and your already loosing. You can solve this using inclusion/exclusion.

You have 4 aces, 3 jacks, out of the 47 remaining unknown cards. Up to three of your opponents could have AJ. My calculation is that one or more of your opponents was dealt AJ. I only figured out two terms but it is reasonably accurate.

=9*12/(47c2)-(9c2)*12*6/(47c2)/(45c2) = 9.991% or 1 in 10

A reasonable approximation is 1.1 % * # of opponents.

Cobra

[threeducks]

Thanks - Then would you play the hand with a 90% (assuming 10 players) confidence that you are winning given two blanks on the the Turn and river?

Edit - this actually happened to me twice in one session and both times I was in the big blind. I had different opponents however.

One time it was good and one time it was not. That is what got me to wondering. So either we can wing it and say that a flopped non-nut straight is good about 90% of the time against one, and 80% against 2 and 70% against 3 and so on rather than trying to work it out at the tables.

Thanks again. The book FLOP discusses this issue but it is referring to flushes.

[Cobra]

This is very opponent dependent and it is hard to give you a good answer. Some things to consider.

1. How does AJ fit the range of hands your opponent limped in with. If he is very tight and UTG he most likely does not have AJ. If he was on the button or in the SB he proboably would have raised with AJ.

2. The problem with that flop is it could have hit many of the hands your opponent limped in with hard. If your opponent was straight forward I would be much more inclined to go to the river if he raised my flop bet. Even an average player will see he flopped the nuts and is not in much danger so most likely he will not raise, he is more likely to raise with something like KQ. If he calls it is much more difficult. He could be calling with the nuts or could be calling with AQ offsuit. I would proboably fire out again on a blank turn 50%/ and check 50%. Tough situation.

Cobra