EV of Limping with PP after Limpers

[Nichomacheo]

http://www.treeplan.com/

[Cobra]

I might try this out but I want to make sure I understand your assumptions before I try. I have not looked at your chart but in your description you say that there are two limpers. I thought that MP3 and CO limped, if the button limped as well are you assuming that the sb and bb would fold or am I missing something here.

Cobra

[Nichomacheo]

[ QUOTE ]
I might try this out but I want to make sure I understand your assumptions before I try. I have not looked at your chart but in your description you say that there are two limpers. I thought that MP3 and CO limped, if the button limped as well are you assuming that the sb and bb would fold or am I missing something here.

Cobra

[/ QUOTE ]

MP3 and CO limp, I am BN and limp. I assume blinds will only raise with 99+,AK+.

[Nichomacheo]

Oh, and assume SB completes. I dont see that as too important though, although you could argue the more players in, the more you can expect to win when you hit a set.

[Steel]

The answer is in HOH V2.
Playing little pairs and suited connectors when M decrease

[Nichomacheo]

[ QUOTE ]

The answer is in HOH V2.
Playing little pairs and suited connectors when M decrease

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, go on...

[Andruin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The answer is in HOH V2.
Playing little pairs and suited connectors when M decrease

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, go on...

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically it states that if you M decreases small PP gets unplayable as you need to spend to much money to look for the set. It also states that if you get into the low M category they are very well playable with pushing them.

This however is tournament play and is hardly converted 100% to cash games. However a small PP is an implied odds hand and with stacks only 20BB it solely depends on the number of limpers before you.

[Gonso]

Tourney/cash game makes a difference in the decision process.

Cash game:

Based on your assumption that 90% of the time the SB will complete and BB will check, this is an easy call. There are 3 big reasons why:

1) We're getting 4-to-1 on our money
2) We have a very strong speculative hand
3) We'll have position on 4 players

While the stacks aren't very deep, they're deep enough to get the implied odds you need. Here I'm trying to see if I can get a 10-to-1 total return on my preflop money. We haven't even seen the flop yet and I'm already 40% there. Add in the positional advantage, and it's very likely we'll get the rest - stacking someone is hardly a requirement here. Someone will likely take a shot at the pot on the flop - won't take much to get the rest of the money you need. Someone bets top pair and 1 guy calls - you're there already.

Remember also, you're more likely to get action from players with lesser hands since they aren't relatively deep. I could see someone stacking off on a KJ5 flop with all kinds of hands.

You could calculate the EV for this if you knew exactly how each player would behave with certain cards + certain flops, which is too complex for your purpose.

Tournaments:

Need a lot more info... in some cases a fold could be appropriate here, maybe even a raise. Really depends on players/structure/table image and so on. Chip EV can be pretty complex.

[Nichomacheo]

Thanks for the reply,

90% is only partially an estimate. A simulation of 30k hands shows that the SB and/or BB will only get 99+,AK something like 9.8% of the time. If we assume they are not raising with anything else, 10% is a fairly accurate number for how often they will raise and I will have to fold. I also assumed the small blind calls, but, I think this is fairly accurate because he'll have to call 0.5bb to win 4.5, or, 9:1 odds.

I'm curious why you think we have a strong speculative hand. We only hit the flop 11.8% of the time, and even then, I'm not gauranteed to make any money from it. Remember that no one raised, so, I need to hit a set AND my opponent to have a hand he wants to fight with. This usually means top pair on a two flush board, two pair, or three of a kind (which means I have a full house).

This is complex, but like I said, I've written simulation software that can run any type of scenario. With realistic assumptions, I can run simulations on their range vs the board, how much I can win, etc etc. If anyone is interested in helping me with this, I could use the extra insight.

N

[Nichomacheo]

Is it the scenario that has prompted the lack of responses? I think this is a situation that occurs a lot, but maybe without the 20bb stacks. If anyone would like me to do it for deeper stacks, tell me what you want and I'll do it.

I want to encourage discussion about the assumptions [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

N