Probabillity of someone has 2pair + on the flop?

[WuTank]

Lets say you play shorthanded limit and have Aces and you +5 other go to the flop.How big is the chance that your (unimproved) aces are behind?

[creamfillin]

The probability that someone flopped two pair I think is about 3% or 4%. The probability that that someone has a set I would estimate about 7% (out of the five other players) . Probability that your aces are good probably around 7:3

[Iwineverypot]

probability of someone having a set is nowhere near 7%. That would be the case if every single one of them had pocket pairs, but think logically, a set is better than 2 pair so it should happen less often. You'd have to figure the odds of someone else having a pp preflop and multiplying that by 7% to get the odds of someone having a set.

[creamfillin]

Correction:Probability of someone having a set is around 4.3%

[Cobra]

You are UTG and limp with AA. Your five opponents all call. The flop comes J72 rainbow. You are losing to anyone who was dealt JJ, 77, J7, J2, and 72 and played them.

Using inclusion/exclusion the probability that one or more of your opponents was dealt these hands is 16 % or 1 in 6.3.

This time the flop comes JJ2. You are losing to anyone who has JJ, 22, J2, Jx and has stayed in to see the flop.

Using inclusion/exclusion the probability that anyone was dealt these hands is 36.2% or 1 in 2.76.

Cobra