A very quick way to derive pre-flop odds (feedback appreciated)

[jay_shark]

For the most part , this is a waste of time .

How do you calculate something like 9-10 offsuit ?

How many outs do you have ?

You can say you have 6 outs but how many outs would you assign something like j-q? . I can tell you from experience , this is about 3.5%.

What you would like to know is the probability of having a favorable flop when you have something like 9-10 offsuit . This may include flops that include j-q , j-8 ,8-7 etc .

[KipBond]

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For the most part , this is a waste of time .

How do you calculate something like 9-10 offsuit ?

How many outs do you have ?

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I have no idea. Outs to what? You might win with anything from high card to a straight flush. I guess you can only consider 2 pair to a full house, since the others aren't likely to happen, or aren't likely to win. You'll hit one of these hands 34% of the time (by the river). JTs will hit one of these hands 38% of the time. 72o will hit one 28% of the time. AA will hit one 63% of the time. 22 will hit 58%.

So... what? I'm confused about what this is for?

[KipBond]

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For FLOP: outs x 4 + 8
For FULL: outs x 4 + 26

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I'm confused. The 2/4 rule estimates the odds of you hitting your outs. So, you are doing the same thing pre-flop, right? It's ~2% per card. So FULL would be outs * 10. Or am I misunderstanding what you are saying? I think I am, because how do you count your outs pre-flop?

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I think I figured out what you are doing. Just having fun, right? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I'm changing my regression to 9*#outs by the river -- 6*#outs on the flop -- I call this the 69 rule. I think this is simpler & works pretty well for 2-6 outs. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Which is about all you can really be looking at pre-flop, right? I mean, you either have a pair & 2 outs (to hit a set) -- so 9*2 = 18% to hit it by the river (it's really closer to 20%). Or you don't have a pair and you have 6 outs; 6*9 = 54% chance of pairing up by the river (it's really closer to 45%).

[KipBond]

The 69 rule also applies to hitting a flush or straight by the river. 2 suited cards have a 6% chance of hitting a flush by the river. Connectors have a 9% chance of hitting a straight by the river (approx. -2 for each over or under card out of range, and -2 for each gap between the connectors). So, JT has a 9% chance of hitting a straight (no gap, no o-o-r cards). QJ has an 7% chance (you lose one over-card for a straight). J9 has 7% chance (1 gap). J8 has 5% chance (2 gap).

[Cobra]

A good approximation of when you will hit your hand on the flop is 5.5% per out. This will give you an answer within 1% from 2-6 outs. As previously said the river is between 8 and 9% per out. Use 9% with less outs and 8% with more.

Cobra

[Cobra]

This is an approximation to hit one or more of your outs.

Cobra