Forum: Small Stakes
08-02-2007, 07:02 PM
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Replies: 19
Views: 74
Re: AK blind battle vs regular
Sorry if tl;dr!
strde635, with all due respect I think this is a gross oversimplification of a very difficult topic (3/4-betting).
My own view is that:
1) In total donk fest games, all sorts of...
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Forum: Heads Up Poker
07-31-2007, 04:06 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 92
Re: 55 in $220 HU debate
wow, so he really is crazy! Then with effective stacks of not much more than 15bbs I'm not so sure. Do people think with stack sizes as they are we can pass up >55-45 (assuming OP is right that he is...
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Forum: Heads Up Poker
07-31-2007, 03:44 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 92
Re: 55 in $220 HU debate
Just playing around with pokerstove, you range from 55-45 favourite if he is pushing top 70% of hands to 55-45 dog if he is pushing top 20%. Even if his range here is ATC you are still only a 60-40...
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Forum: Small Stakes
07-31-2007, 09:17 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 30
Re: rivered tptk on paired board, 3-bet pot.
Thanks for the feedback. Maybe bet/fold the flop is good. I think I expected him to c-raise overpairs and thats why I checked. Seems everyone agrees the river call is bad without a good read. He had...
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Forum: Small Stakes
07-31-2007, 08:16 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 30
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Forum: Small Stakes
07-30-2007, 05:42 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 30
rivered tptk on paired board, 3-bet pot.
I think I butchered this hand so feel free to say so.
Villain is a solid TAG. I think my image is TAG (unless he saw me on monkey tilt yesterday!).
Only other time he got allin against me he had...
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Forum: Probability
07-30-2007, 03:31 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 55
Re: big draws w/o fold equity
Ok,btw if some of my comments above sound like teaching a granny to suck eggs (I haven't play higher than 400NL and my game has more leaks than I care to mention) its unintended! I was genuinely...
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Forum: Probability
07-30-2007, 03:16 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 55
Re: big draws w/o fold equity
[ QUOTE ]
option 1: all-in on the flop. according to twodimes.net i have .526 equity on the flop vs red aces. that's $1052 equity or +$52.
[/ QUOTE ]
I prefer to count your equity from the...
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Forum: Probability
07-30-2007, 03:08 PM
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Replies: 8
Views: 55
Re: big draws w/o fold equity
In this specific example (with the assumption you state that bb pushes any turn) I think it is better to call the flop and re-evaluate. I make the assumption that you also call the turn if you hit a...
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Forum: Probability
07-27-2007, 07:15 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 118
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Forum: Probability
07-26-2007, 07:58 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 118
Re: probably a super easy question
[ QUOTE ]
I think you didn't really bother to read the question which was chances of taking both balls from the bag with ten red balls.
[/ QUOTE ]
trickster, that isn't correct.I think you...
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Forum: Probability
07-25-2007, 09:07 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 85
Re: question
I said:
[ QUOTE ]
I note that in your example if you win 79 times you end up 38 units up and if you win 80 times you end up 40 units up if I’ve understood correctly. So I will use 80 times.
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Forum: Probability
07-25-2007, 09:01 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 85
Re: question
I think for your example, the probability is going to be very very close to 0.
You are essentially just tossing weighted coins
The simplest case is when the weighting is constant. So suppose...
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Forum: News, Views, and Gossip
06-28-2007, 07:48 PM
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Replies: 378
Views: 3,092
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Forum: News, Views, and Gossip
06-28-2007, 09:54 AM
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Replies: 378
Views: 3,092
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Forum: Probability
05-19-2007, 05:41 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 97
Re: weighted coins question
Thanks for the reply. I had appreciated this problem with my proposed method. Indeed if Alice knows the average weighting she can just tell Bob that is the weighting for all the coins. This spells...
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Forum: Probability
05-19-2007, 04:05 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 97
weighted coins question
I have a question which I will express in terms of weighted coins:
Alice has a huge pile of coins, each with different weightings on them.
She has some idea of the weighting on each coin but her...
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Forum: Small Stakes
02-03-2007, 09:16 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 50
Re: $100NL AA gettin thin towards the river.
With a 3-flush and 4 to a straight showing I wonder if there is any value against some villains (obviously there is plenty against a lot of villians). Tbh though I think I often miss value on the...
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Forum: Small Stakes
02-03-2007, 09:06 PM
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Replies: 10
Views: 50
Re: $100NL AA gettin thin towards the river.
I don't understand why you played this hand so passively, particularly as the flop is drawy. Even if villain isn't 3-betting light there are still plenty of hands you don't want to give a free card....
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Forum: Small Stakes
01-26-2007, 11:34 AM
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Replies: 59
Views: 196
Re: What hell is with all the miniraises?
People seem to be very dismissive of min-raises because of the deeply ingrained "standard" wisdom that only donks do it. However I think it is worth considering that a highly experienced player who...
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Forum: Small Stakes
01-25-2007, 06:26 PM
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Replies: 98
Views: 329
Re: It\'s about time we had this discussion
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Hmm, I don't raise SC's in EP. Agreed on KQ-AJ-AQ. About the small pairs: with $100 stacks, you raise to $4, 35/18 re-raises to $10, do you auto-fold? If not, what is the most important:...
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Forum: Small Stakes
01-25-2007, 06:16 PM
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Replies: 98
Views: 329
Re: It\'s about time we had this discussion
In 6-max I am raising but generally folding to a 3-bet (if the re-raiser hasn't been getting out of line): small pocket pairs, KQs, AJ,AQ. LAGs who have a wider raising range in EP would have more...
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Forum: Small Stakes
01-25-2007, 05:10 PM
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Replies: 98
Views: 329
Re: It\'s about time we had this discussion
FWIW, Chen and Ankenman recommend raising less when opening in EP than in LP. Their reasoning is that you are trying to strike a balance between dealing with when someone still to act has a premium...
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Forum: Probability
12-29-2006, 10:49 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 55
Re: Interesting probability question
Thanks Jay :-) I think Siegmund's solution is neater though because its so simple. I understand he is saying for each element there is a probability of 1/2 that it is in A and a probability 1/2 its...
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Forum: Probability
12-29-2006, 10:11 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 55
Re: Interesting probability question
Here is my solution:
Number of possible combinations of subsets A and B = (2^n)*(2^n)=4^n since A and B are chosen independently and there are 2^n possible subsets.
Number of ways that A can be a...
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