200 6m: monster flop draw gone bad

[aejones]

I agree. Looking back at it, his turn bet REALLY SUCKs.

[JKratzer]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just trying to play Devil's Advocate here to try and make a case for a push. Basically, I think we're strongly representing AAA and QQQ here, based on there, with about 150-200 behind- is a raise/ push now +EV if he's going to have trouble even calling with TTT?

[/ QUOTE ]

he will never lay down TTT.

[RubbleRobble]

I use aejones's reasoning to put villain on AQ/AT. That being said, I think the turn is a fold. There is no hand that the villain could think that we have that he is currently beating (KK, AT, AK) that wouldnt improve to a winner when one of our real outs comes. And obv if the villain would think that he is beat on the turn if we raise/shove, the nit is prolly folding. So essentially, to make any more money on this hand, the villain has to think that the hero is behind on the turn, but playing with a non-jack, non-king, AND non-two-club hand. I can't think of anything that fits this description.

[mistermuni]

against 16/8, pretty easy fold on turn.

[Big_Jim]

Easy and obvious call.

You need to average $33 on the river to make this call break-even.

Your outs might be obvious, but he's going to be getting almost 3:1 on the river to call your all in.

Shoving is stupid, because he has you beat, and he isn't folding.

I don't like the flop raise, vs a nit. A nit leading into me on a board like this would have me very worried.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you ever not get, say, a hundred out of him on a club/J river? I don't like folding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is a nit and your hand looks exactly like what it is. You have no hidden hand here, and if I'm villain I'm check folding any sort of bet on a bad river. Especially folding to an all in which is about what's needed to get the value for your hand.

If your hand was more hidden I'm okay calling. Not to mention that both your draws guaranteed to be good, which the straight draw isn't, it could easily chop.

[ QUOTE ]
You need to average $33 on the river to make this call break-even.

[/ QUOTE ]

My math - which admittedly may be screwed up - says you're counting 15 outs to get to that $33 number. Doesn't much matter though cause I don't think you've got even close to that in effective outs so I may be wrong.

9 clubs, 1 of which might be tainted.
4 Jacks, 3 of which might result in a chop (1 of which might already be in villain's hand).
2 Tens, both of which could easily be no good.
3 Kings which are almost never good.

I'd count it 9 + 3 + 0 + 0 in effective outs. 12 effective outs, MAYBE 13 if you're lucky.

Most importantly I think your flush doesn't get paid off much if anything here. The straight sometimes. Implied odds look sucky to me, despite the fact that he'll be getting 3 to 1 to call on the river. He's a nit. He'll look for a reason to fold.

I'm looking this over more and I don't hate calling here. But I don't think it's an easy call. I think it's exceptionally marginal either way, which in my mind means pick one and go with it.

Raising would be bad.

- C -

[effinA]

[ QUOTE ]
...I don't like the flop raise, vs a nit. A nit leading into me on a board like this would have me very worried.

[/ QUOTE ]

what would have been a better flop line vs nits?.....what if villain was 35/17??

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
what would have been a better flop line vs nits?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well... you're not folding....

[ QUOTE ]
what if villain was 35/17??

[/ QUOTE ]
Then a raise would be standard, and you should be more inclined to push the turn, but I probaly still wouldn't do it, here.

[effinA]

psu,

i think i would get paid off, just based off my normal semi lagginess image......i do fire a lot of bets post flop and im pretty sure this guy wont let go of his hand.....

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
My math - which admittedly may be screwed up - says you're counting 15 outs to get to that $33 number..

[/ QUOTE ]

My $33 number came from a quick guess assuming we were ~3:1 to hit and win, and we're never paying off if we don't make a straight or better. Whether or not we pay off on the 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I suppose can be debated.

Board: Ac Qc Td 6s
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.6585 % 25.00% 01.66% { KcTc }
Hand 2: 73.3415 % 71.68% 01.66% { AA, QQ, TT, AQs+, KJs, AQo+, KJo }