#51
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Re: Live hand vs. Steve Dannenman - Update
[ QUOTE ]
I think you are way overestimating his calling range. You really think he calls your push with 22 or AT? [/ QUOTE ] He is getting 4-3 pot odds and this is a classic steal/resteal situation. I think calling with 22 or AT is not a bad play. You probably are above the 43% you need versus the reraiser/restealer's range. One of the problems with flat calling is that if you push AJ+ is going to call you and you have it crushed. If you flat call, 53s would fold to a push, but how much action are you going to get. Even if 53s cbets, it will probably fold to the checkraise. You may get action if 53s makes a pair, but you will definately get action if it can beat AA or has a draw. |
#52
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Re: Live hand vs. Steve Dannenman - Update
Oh, I agree with you. I do not like a flat call here at all just to try to squeeze a cbet out of SD.
My only point is that I don't think there is any way in hell that AT or 22 call unless SD has seen you restealing, thinks your LAG, and/or has some other type of read on you. |
#53
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Re: Live hand vs. Steve Dannenman - Update
I think calling with 22 would be a terrible play, and calling with AT pretty bad.
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#54
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Re: Live hand vs. Steve Dannenman - Update
I think the problem is that betgo is looking through SD's eyes and seeing himself in the BB, restealing with 33% of possible hands. Even in that case, 22 is a 55-45ish dog to that range of hands. With the pot odds you are somewhere around calling a coinflip for most of your chips. Reads are crucial here, but if I am SD I will give credit for a decent hand unless I have seen Hero getting out of line or have some other read. But even I have seen Hero getting a little out of line I am not calling here with friggin' 22.
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#55
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Re: Live hand vs. Steve Dannenman - Update
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Oh, I agree with you. I do not like a flat call here at all just to try to squeeze a cbet out of SD. My only point is that I don't think there is any way in hell that AT or 22 call unless SD has seen you restealing, thinks your LAG, and/or has some other type of read on you. [/ QUOTE ] When I reraise, AT and 22 call. I think you have to assume there is a good chance of a resteal in this situation, unless you have a read to the contrary. With 22, if it is 2-1 BB has overcards versus a pp, calling is cEV+. With AT, you could be dominated, but you dominate Ax and are ahead of anything else but pps, which you are slightly behind. I think you are getting about 43% with AT also. 22 and AT are borderline. Say the range is ATs+, AJo+, KQs, 88+. This is late position raise versus BB reraise. SD is a good player, so I assume his calling range is wide. Even if a call is slightly cEV-, you don't want people restealing. I remember the post about the hand from a 2-table step 5 where Gigabet raised from the button and called a BB push with KJ. It depends on the player. I have gotten called by all sorts of crap in this situation late in online $5-$30 rebuys where there are a lot of maniac types. Some player at this stage of the tournament are weak/tight and will fold a lot of hands. I think the range I gave is fairly accurate for SD. |
#56
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Re: Live hand vs. Steve Dannenman - Update
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I think the problem is that betgo is looking through SD's eyes and seeing himself in the BB, restealing with 33% of possible hands. Even in that case, 22 is a 55-45ish dog to that range of hands. With the pot odds you are somewhere around calling a coinflip for most of your chips. Reads are crucial here, but if I am SD I will give credit for a decent hand unless I have seen Hero getting out of line or have some other read. But even I have seen Hero getting a little out of line I am not calling here with friggin' 22. [/ QUOTE ] Hero has a tight image, which probably indicates terrible play at the this stage of a live tournament, sohe may have trouble getting action for AA. Given hero's image, DN probably needs a real raising hand to call. When the tight player makes a small reraise in this situation, it is time to say "just kidding" and fold whatever you have. |
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