PLO .20 Make the Low End Straight - Bet or Call?

holdemsucks · #1 11-02-2007, 11:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Once hero gets to the turn and improves his call on turn is automatic

[/ QUOTE ] He has 9 diamonds to the nut flush, 4 Kings to the nut straight. Someone could have 63xx with a really good xx but I'll disregard that for the moment. With 13 outs, Hero should make his hand around half the time right? If everyone played equally well, he should win one quarter of the pot. Now would not it be right to raise as much as possible?

chucky · #2 11-02-2007, 11:52 PM

13 outs with one street to go is far less than 50% to make a hand. Hero makes his hand about 1 in 3 times since we have no information about the other players hands and if we assume bettor has bare set. if we raise we only knock out weak draws that only take a little bit of our equity away, while allowing the set to get allin on turn. If hero had 15 outs on the flop, shoving might be warranted.

holdemsucks · #3 11-02-2007, 11:59 PM

Add the 4 outs to the non-nut wheel.

chucky · #4 11-03-2007, 12:08 AM

This factors in the 3 non diamond 5 outs as 13 nut outs. 7 non pairing diamond. 3 kings, 3 5s. 3 9s if you dont mind non nut outs.

holdemsucks · #5 11-03-2007, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
13 outs with one street to go is far less than 50% to make a hand. Hero makes his hand about 1 in 3 times since we have no information about the other players hands and if we assume bettor has bare set. if we raise we only knock out weak draws that only take a little bit of our equity away, while allowing the set to get allin on turn. If hero had 15 outs on the flop, shoving might be warranted.

[/ QUOTE ] My bad - one of the worst mistakes I've made in a reply. All the odds I was looking at was currently on the flop with 2 cards to come. Yes - much less than 50%, almost half that LOL. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]