NL 25 - QQ overpair - too aggressive?

[takingcontrol]

folding and re-raising are both really close here for me. I think top pair is one of the weakest hands we see BB turn over here.

[Bad Beat Expert]

It looks like the SB's bet is just dumbed-down smallball, trying to take down a pot for an ultra-low price, or set himself up for a bigger stab at the pot on the next street.

As it stands, the BB probably has TPGK or better, due to his passivity. His range thus includes QJ, KJ, AJ, JT, J9, QQ, KK, AA. I'll throw away the 3T and 3J hands as too unlikely with a 32% VPIP. If you take that range, and weight the likelihood of each hand, I'd say you're ahead more than half the time, and crushed only by KK and AA. Against top two pair, you still have over 30% equity. Due to the relative depth of the remaining stacks, I'd peel one off to see where I stand on the next street. The best case is a Q, the second best is that a 3 pairs the board and puts you ahead of JT. I'd also take a king or a 9 for the open-ended straight outs.

Of course you're also crushed by a set, I should've mentioned that; but the original line still stands.

[Profish2285]

Thank you for letting me know since I did grace you with my 1000th post like you noticed.

[traz]

I am never folding this flop

[Profish2285]

Why, you think QQ is ahead of both their ranges after getting donked into and then raised before it even gets to you?

[reemas]

i agree at this level this is a tough fold - but possibly correct.

[traz]

SB's donk means absolutely nothing, you're effectively against a 32/10/.86 fish who just donked on a wet flop. And I wouldn't fold in that situation ever.