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#11
10-23-2007, 02:32 PM
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Re: Semi-bluff/free-showdown raise
[ QUOTE ]
If he was drawing and was going to bet it down, as he likely would, raising would take his bluff value away from him. If I didn't have the best hand, I likely had 15 outs, nine flush cards and six pair cards. [/ QUOTE ] What is Roy meaning by this? If he thinks his opp is going to fire his draws on the river why not call, call to 'take his bluff value away'. Also, after reading Roys work I'm convinced he is a great live-player with good people reading skills. I'm sure he had a 'feel' SB was weak, which changes the math a lot. 
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#12
10-23-2007, 02:44 PM
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Re: Semi-bluff/free-showdown raise
This hand being played live makes it a little better. Online, nobody ever folds a pair ever on this board on the turn.
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#13
10-23-2007, 02:50 PM
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Re: Semi-bluff/free-showdown raise
If he was drawing and was going to bet it down, as he likely would, raising would take his bluff value away from him. If I didn't have the best hand, I likely had 15 outs, nine flush cards and six pair cards.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "What is Roy meaning by this? If he thinks his opp is going to fire his draws on the river why not call, call to 'take his bluff value away'." Yeah I think that's where Roy's logic is flawed. We dont have to raise the turn to stop a bluff, all we have to do is not fold. Assuming we cant fold a better hand on the turn, calling down looks like a better route than raising for a free showdown. (BTW, if we do raise the turn, we should still bet the river if a non heart king hits becuz the pot will be large enough to make this bluff profitable IMO) "Also, after reading Roys work I'm convinced he is a great live-player with good people reading skills. I'm sure he had a 'feel' SB was weak, which changes the math a lot." This reminds me of another aspect of Roy's turn raise. According to what I hear from people who have played with Roy, he seems to have a Tight, straight forward image. If this is the image the SB has of him, then maybe the SB will fold a hand like 9x on the turn thus making Roy's turn raise the clear correct play. However, there is not enough information to draw this conclusion at the point of Roy's turn raise.
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#14
10-23-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: Semi-bluff/free-showdown raise
You're right that it's a Roy Cooke hand. I read this an disagreed with post-flop, although I think the turn raise is close as played. The points I disagree with are the points that everybody else here disagrees with:
- He's not folding a pair enough here. Small pp are in his range when he just cold calls out of the SB, but I think it's more heavily weighted towards suited connectors, unsuited broadway and Ax type hands. All of these hands hit a pair or strong draw on this flop. - Getting 3-bet on the turn here is not good. - With so many draws there are a lot of good bluffing opportunities for the SB on the river, but we can take that away with the turn raise. I agree with him on this point. This would be more interesting if the board were less coordinated and I think it would just be a call in that case. If the SB is going to bluff all of his busted draws on the river though we should just call and then call most river cards (except ones that complete both the straight and flush.) This avoids getting 3-bet and basically makes the same as raising. - We can still raise the river when he hit and make the same as raising the turn. I think the key points are that he's not folding enough and stopping bluffs isn't a good play here. You want to encourage aggressive players to bluff, not stop them. This is right out of Theory of Poker. He is also does not consider getting 3-bet here.
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#16
10-23-2007, 03:29 PM
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Re: Semi-bluff/free-showdown raise
[ QUOTE ]
If Roy is good I dont want to be good. This hand is silly on both flop and turn. Mostly on turn tho. [/ QUOTE ] So are you saying that you would call down baring specific river cards? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#17
10-23-2007, 03:34 PM
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Re: Semi-bluff/free-showdown raise
[ QUOTE ]
If Roy is good I dont want to be good. This hand is silly on both flop and turn. Mostly on turn tho. [/ QUOTE ] that reminds me, if sb is as you describe you're getting c/r'ed on the flop like always so check behind. Abso, you play 1/2ish right? I'm pretty sure the TAGs there are less of SD monkeys than the TAGs at mid limits and so in general I disagree that this guy is never bet/folding the turn with 55 for example.
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#18
10-23-2007, 03:40 PM
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Re: Semi-bluff/free-showdown raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If Roy is good I dont want to be good. This hand is silly on both flop and turn. Mostly on turn tho. [/ QUOTE ] that reminds me, if sb is as you describe you're getting c/r'ed on the flop like always so check behind. Abso, you play 1/2ish right? I'm pretty sure the TAGs there are less of SD monkeys than the TAGs at mid limits and so in general I disagree that this guy is never bet/folding the turn with 55 for example. [/ QUOTE ] This hand wasn't in reference to a specific limit. The guy was aggressive and that's all we had. I do agree that small pp will be folding on the turn sometimes, but I also don't think that makes up a large part of his range. So, the P(he has a pp pre-flop)*P(he raised it on that flop)*P(he folds it on this turn) doesn't seem high enough for me to consider it a huge factor in this turn decision. When you see that the bluffing and value parts of his reasoning don't make sense either, the turn is a check at any limit.
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#19
10-23-2007, 03:47 PM
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Re: Semi-bluff/free-showdown raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If Roy is good I dont want to be good. This hand is silly on both flop and turn. Mostly on turn tho. [/ QUOTE ] So are you saying that you would call down baring specific river cards? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] no I would.... Naa who am I kidding. You know I am
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