2 hands (live 1/2/5)

[Perestroika]

In hand two I think that is an easy check behind for pot control. I mean your not protecting your hand from sets/two pair unless these players are calling with 33-22 in there hands, only realistic set is 99, so if your getting called, the problem comes down to what suited cards are they calling preflop that you are beating. 4-8 flushes your beating, but realize that higher flushes for reason that they are played more often but more importantly are more often dealt, make betting this flop -EV.

Flushes that you are beating on flop are 45, 46, 47, 48, 56, 57, 58- etc. (besides having outs) can be made less likely than an ace flush, because now you have to include A4, A5, A6, A7 A8 and thats the same for J-K. Also you get zero value unless there players are maniacs with one pair or something from your ten high flush from betting because no non-flush hands will give you action, whereas if you checked you could have gained value from those hands.

The last reason a check on this flop is best is that on the turn you have no clue if you are betting for value or bluffing. If you fire turn can you honestly tell me you were value betting, I doubt it.

[Aisthesis]

I'm going to try a rough EV calculation on the AAds hand. I'm just going to assume he has Q9 here, as I think he will almost always. And please feel free to critique any assumptions I make here.

Here are the cases:

1) Turn non-pairing heart (8 times). I think my implied odds are low, but maybe sometimes he'll have decent hearts and bet or call. So, surely they're not 0. Let's say I win an extra $60 on average over and above the $160+180. So, that makes 400 here.

2) Turn Th. I think I usually win $340 here, although it's dodgy. Let's call it an average win of $100 to be conservative.

3) Turn 2d-7d (6 times). Pot on the turn is 500, and I think he fires about 400 at it here. I'd then have about 250 left. Now I double up on non-pairing diamonds for sure (7 times), so I win 340+400+250 = 990 in that case. Then maybe an average of 600 on the 2 pairing diamonds (I think I have to bet these rivers, as he's pretty much pot-committed and calls without being full). I won't go through the various other cases except one: If the river is an A, I think I do have to make a crying call for 250 for a pot now of 1,550 (?). If that's the best play, then my EV is $46.

4) Turn 9d, Qd, Kd. I think I may have some fold equity here, hence am for pushing. Let's say he puts in 350 and folds 1/4 of the time, and puts in 350 and calls the other 3/4. My EV on a call is now -75, but on a fold it's 180+160+350 = 690. This adds up to an EV of 180.

5) Turn A. I push here. I think he folds here a bit more often, since he's less likely to have 2 pair with whatever straight he has. And he's even going to check-fold sometimes. Let's just say he puts in 350 and folds 1/4, all goes in the middle 1/2, and he check-folds 1/4. That puts my EV at 235 here.

6) All other turns (22) I fold and lose 160.

I get as total EV here: $21.

Well, it sure seems like a lot of work and risk for 4 BB, but that's really a pretty decent difference in win-rates when it comes down to it.

[Aisthesis]

They call with huge ranges, actually.

I think he has some straight here almost always with set and 2 pair being somewhere in there a very small percentage of the time. I think he'd probably check-call with a set here.

But that does bring up another interesting aspect, namely how often I have any fold equity at all on the flop. I honestly view it as fairly low.

As to whether he himself would have raised a really good 4-card wrap hitting this flop, well, probably, like 9TJQ. I think we're probably looking here at something like 29JQ.

He COULD have the low end of the straight, but I really just didn't feel that. He seemed pretty confident in his hand.