AK on the bubble facing huge overbet

[kamel]

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He's probably not shoving JJ+. You can be pretty damn sure he isn't shoving AA & KK & most players aren't shoving the other 2, especially QQ.

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As villain, I shove JJ and QQ every single time. Against certain opponents I might play AA or KK differently, but I don't mind shoving them either most of the time. Any other raise looks funny to anyone paying attention, and anyone not paying attention to that is as likely to call the shove with something like 99 or AJ or whatever as not.

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I agree you and JSH06 too.
If I have a read on CO AND BB (and that SB probably is not a moron) that they probably will fold a lot, I will push here a lot (probably, better SCs, most PPs, most Axs, and most suited broadway and probably also J9s,Q9s,...). I know, I make a theoretical mistake following SnGWiz here, but this is negoitated by the fact that I can take here a lot of chips down and a lot of fold equity later given that I will be most likely 2nd here after the push. There are further reasons too (shortening average SnG-Time, making later decisions easier, meta game for balancing my push ranges, playing for win, blind increase stuff, ...), but not so important here.

However, I think JSH06 is right here to believe that most villains won't push here AA/KK, especially at this low buyin (because they might want to get paid off, so they might just raise something like minimum or 3BBs or so) So, I guess, it makes a Push even easier than it was already.

[JSH06]

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I agree you and JSH06 too.
If I have a read on CO AND BB (and that SB probably is not a moron) that they probably will fold a lot, I will push here a lot (probably, better SCs, most PPs, most Axs, and most suited broadway and probably also J9s,Q9s,...). I know, I make a theoretical mistake following SnGWiz here, but this is negoitated by the fact that I can take here a lot of chips down and a lot of fold equity later given that I will be most likely 2nd here after the push. There are further reasons too (shortening average SnG-Time, making later decisions easier, meta game for balancing my push ranges, playing for win, blind increase stuff, ...), but not so important here.


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I think you're way over thinking things here and that probably causes you to make a lot of -EV shoves.

[kamel]

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I think you're way over thinking things here and that probably causes you to make a lot of -EV shoves.

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My winrate dictates something different, but I only 4tables SnGs, so I usually have the reads I have written of, and I also (perhaps more important) play really turbo SnGs, quicker than at these of stars, where my mentioned concepts are important.

And indeed, in really turbo SnGs, it's more important to know when to make a slight negative -EV push to avoid further more -EV situations (like being cribbled) than to know exactly when to make +EV Pushs (allthough, I know them very good, working with SnGWizard a lot).

I'm not sure, how validate these thinkings are on $10 SnGs, I use to play much higher, but friends of mine, I coach at these levels (o.k. currently $5), I see a lot of these possible plays and when I recommend them, they work. These players are even without googling, sharkscoping, reading hand histories so easy to read, that it seems for me to even more profitable even at these buyins.

However, this slow structure at Stars might change things, especially with the ante in 100/200 in next level, so not sure about.

[JSH06]

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I think you're way over thinking things here and that probably causes you to make a lot of -EV shoves.

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My winrate dictates something different, but I only 4tables SnGs, so I usually have the reads I have written of, and I also (perhaps more important) play really turbo SnGs, quicker than at these of stars, where my mentioned concepts are important.

And indeed, in really turbo SnGs, it's more important to know when to make a slight negative -EV push to avoid further more -EV situations (like being cribbled) than to know exactly when to make +EV Pushs (allthough, I know them very good, working with SnGWizard a lot).

I'm not sure, how validate these thinkings are on $10 SnGs, I use to play much higher, but friends of mine, I coach at these levels (o.k. currently $5), I see a lot of these possible plays and when I recommend them, they work. These players are even without googling, sharkscoping, reading hand histories so easy to read, that it seems for me to even more profitable even at these buyins.

However, this slow structure at Stars might change things, especially with the ante in 100/200 in next level, so not sure about.

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You're nowhere near being crippled and a lot of those hands you mentioned are horrible pushes.

[kamel]

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You're nowhere near being crippled and a lot of those hands you mentioned are horrible pushes.

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If I will fold a lot because if I play very tight below 10%, next blinds will 150/300 or even 200/400, I will be crippled after the blinds raise up. (O.K., other players will also crippled, but especially players behind me will have more given the situation BU has). (Edit: ah, o.k. I see the point, at Stars next level will be 100/200/25, so no cribble effect, as I said, I'm used to play ultra turbos).

I also wrote, that I will push light, if CO will fold a lot of his limping hands, BB will not call a lot and SB is not morononic. (I won't do a light push as BU here without reads). In these cases pushing here, might be still directly slightly -EV but the better stack will give me lot of better +EV push situations later, especially if all others are playing directly like you described (what is not untypical for +/-0 or slightly winners below 10%ROI).

However, these pushes are not that terrible, so should OP assume it and light overpush here with AKo also lightly.

[JSH06]

I never even realized the CO limper. I think most players probably shove JJ & QQ here, but standard raise KK & AA.

[Scotty_12]

Im shocked that this thread went farther than:

OP, you should have a read of some kind by now. Your question shouldn't be, "should I call with AK." It should be, "what range do I put villain on." If villain is pushing 17% or looser you call, any tighter and I fold.


I had a reply that I thought I hit 'continue' for that said, if you think he is shoving 16 % or more, then its f ine to call...and it sucks to fold KA but alot of the time you might want to consider it in spots like these

[kamel]

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I had a reply that I thought I hit 'continue' for that said, if you think he is shoving 16 % or more, then its f ine to call...and it sucks to fold KA but alot of the time you might want to consider it in spots like these

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It's +EV to overpush here with AKo if villain is only raising >=10% pf following SnGWizard (given the limper still some fold equity). And it's only a slight mistake to overpush it if raiser has 7-10% preflop range.
SngWizard tells me, that it would be a big mistake to not overpush it if preflop-raiser pushes here >=13% what might be likely.

So, maybe, you're assumptations are different, as you get different results (loose 16% range?!).

However, I'd still overpush it even if I might be afraid of BU beeing a nit for all the reasons, I've already posted here. Only if I think, his range is <5% preflop or I know him very well and think his range is really for my grandma's grave <10% I fold here. (It is really that close, given future game decision with beeing 3rd that is usually really nasty and -EV on the bubble)

[Slim Pickens]

Your winrate won't change much no matter what you do here. Both pushing and folding are close enough to EV=$0 and to each other that you're never going to be able to resolve a "correct" action out of the uncertainty in your opponents' limping/pushing/push-calling ranges. Don't lose sleep over this. Put a <3 BB stack in there and lose sleep over screwing that up.