AK on the bubble facing huge overbet

[icemanjmw]

Noone's been acting up on the bubble, first time anyone's gone all-in since 4 handed play began actually. I'd like to know what the "correct" play is here. I had two thoughts run through my head, I'll let you know which I chose after I get some feedback.

A. He's probably protecting a pair like JJ-88, I have AK and most likely a coinflip or possibly have him dominated so I can try to double up and be in good shape to win this thing.

B. He's probably protecting a pair like JJ-88 so it's probably a coin-flip, which losing right now could cripple me and cost me making the money. Even if he's making a random move with 67 I'm not that big a favorite. Plus if I fold the original limper might call which virtually locks me in for the money.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2130)
Button (t2640)
Hero (t2985)
BB (t5745)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
CO calls t200, <font color="red">Button raises to t2640 (All-in)</font>

[mortimo]

SNGWIZ should give you the answer you are looking for. I haven`t tried this into the wiz, but I wouldn`t fold

[willwonka]

Not sure I could fold this one.

[DeuceSeven]

OP, you should have a read of some kind by now. Your question shouldn't be, "should I call with AK." It should be, "what range do I put villain on." If villain is pushing 17% or looser you call, any tighter and I fold.

[icemanjmw]

[ QUOTE ]
OP, you should have a read of some kind by now. Your question shouldn't be, "should I call with AK." It should be, "what range do I put villain on." If villain is pushing 17% or looser you call, any tighter and I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see, so I'm actually asking the wrong question in this situation. So if I estimate range he was pushing only a pair AA-22, AJ+ then is that top 17% sorry I'm not familar with the hand values. Also what if I assume he wouldn't push with AA-KK, instead playing those for value then I make his range QQ-22 and AJ+ does that change it. Perhaps a link to somewhere helping me value hands by top 10%, 20% etc?

I ended up folding the limper called with AT, the all-in pusher had 77. I would have flopped the K and won it all.

[reno expat]

By my scratched out calculations, you need to win about 62% of the time against his range to call this raise and I don't think AK will be 62% against a lot of reasonable pushing ranges, but it might be kind of close. That said I'm a fish, in real time my thought process is approximately "I'm 37 miles ahead of his range, I call."

[kamel]

SnGWiz tells me that it is only a huge mistake to overpush it if his range is very tight (&lt;7%). If his range is between 7% and 10%, you'll make only a slight mistake and if his range is much broader, like &gt;13%, you are making a huge mistake, if you don't push.

So, in general I would be inclined here to overpush it, but usually I'd just trust my read on villain (and if I wouldn't have anyone yet, I will have one after pushing it for future SnGs on villain). Even if it is close, I think, it's probably better to overpush here because it just shortens the average duration of the SnG and after you overpush him, there's no way to make any hard error any longer in the SnG.

However, there is a more important point. If he is really loose (and he don't need to be very loose, only just raising above average raises, suited broadway plus good pairs), you not only make now a huge mistake, but you will even make his bad play correct, because in the next situation when he will attack at the bubble, he will have more chips than you, so you can't stand the heat (correctly folling ICM) and you will give him further chips (or making a huge mistake later).

There is some point in a non turbo to probably fold it if you believe villain is a nit, just because CO-limper seems to be weak and you might get a better spot later. But on the one hand, it's hard to get a better spot than having AK and more chips than the other villains and you won't have more chips any longer than BU after you will fold in this spot, so even in a non turbo, I'd think, unless you know BU or CO is very nitty, you should push.

[JSH06]

First off, put the buy-in in the title or somewhere in the post.
Second off, yeah the question should be what range you put him on.

He's probably not shoving JJ+. You can be pretty damn sure he isn't shoving AA &amp; KK &amp; most players aren't shoving the other 2, especially QQ.

Also, how is this an overbet? Standard raising opens himself up to re-steals and is very exploitable.

I think this hand is close. If he's on TT-66,AJ+,ATs+,KQs it's a fold. If we add ATo it's a call. If we add 55 it hurts us. I mean, it really depends what's your read is of this player. The buy-in and any read would help. I guess readless I fold because it's probably not going to make you much money if you're right on it being +EV. It's likely not more +EV than just a thin call.

[JacJacAtk]

[ QUOTE ]
He's probably not shoving JJ+. You can be pretty damn sure he isn't shoving AA &amp; KK &amp; most players aren't shoving the other 2, especially QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

As villain, I shove JJ and QQ every single time. Against certain opponents I might play AA or KK differently, but I don't mind shoving them either most of the time. Any other raise looks funny to anyone paying attention, and anyone not paying attention to that is as likely to call the shove with something like 99 or AJ or whatever as not.

[JSH06]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's probably not shoving JJ+. You can be pretty damn sure he isn't shoving AA &amp; KK &amp; most players aren't shoving the other 2, especially QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

As villain, I shove JJ and QQ every single time. Against certain opponents I might play AA or KK differently, but I don't mind shoving them either most of the time. Any other raise looks funny to anyone paying attention, and anyone not paying attention to that is as likely to call the shove with something like 99 or AJ or whatever as not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it really depends on how much you've been shoving and who your opponents are. They may also interpret it as you have a hand you want to play that isn't a +EV shove, and you still want to steal the blinds.