Steal attempt with J8 against 5 limpers?

[JoeyJoJo Shabadu]

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At least one preflop raise and at least one call on almost every hand.

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I like the idea certainly (of shoving), but I don't like the time based on your own read, to simply steal.

However, so much dead money, and you're likely to have 2 live cards and also likely to be called by an underpair a good part of the time if called. If I could do the math ....I would assume you're good with all the dead money that will likely be in there.

[el_dusto]

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you're likely to have 2 live cards

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I wholeheartedly disagree. Given the hugeness of the pot, the smallness of two limpers' stacks, and the decent odds MP2 is being given to call your push (2:1ish if MP1 folds), you have no FE, and J8 doesn't hold up well in multiway pots.. which I'm pretty sure this will be.

One or both short stacks are looking you up here for sure. I think MP2 is more likely to look you up with some overcard-type speculative hands once all those chips are in the pot, as well.

The "live cards" argument might come into play if you could somehow be assured to play this pot heads-up, but given the stack sizes and the bloated pot, I'm fairly sure that you get 2+ callers, and J8 just doesn't have that much strength in a multiway pot. (refer to previous posts about the odds/equity involved in pairing or drawing trips)

[JoeyJoJo Shabadu]

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you're likely to have 2 live cards

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I wholeheartedly disagree. Given the hugeness of the pot, the smallness of two limpers' stacks, and the decent odds MP2 is being given to call your push (2:1ish if MP1 folds), you have no FE, and J8 doesn't hold up well in multiway pots.. which I'm pretty sure this will be.

One or both short stacks are looking you up here for sure. I think MP2 is more likely to look you up with some overcard-type speculative hands once all those chips are in the pot, as well.

The "live cards" argument might come into play if you could somehow be assured to play this pot heads-up, but given the stack sizes and the bloated pot, I'm fairly sure that you get 2+ callers, and J8 just doesn't have that much strength in a multiway pot. (refer to previous posts about the odds/equity involved in pairing or drawing trips)

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I think the difference in our thinking is that you give the limpers some credit. I just don't. I don't think the average player looks at odds etc. And this is a table of average players as is evidenced by the limping (? maybe).

I don't think any hand that they limp here is calling his shove unless it's a pp for the most, and that we do have decent FE. But IF Ace rag calls... we're not doomed. Unless it's KJ QJ JT we're fine but they just don't call a shove here very often.

If they are calling stations at the table, then all bets are off.

[registrar]

The point is that no one has JJ+, and so with the money in the pot, we're gonna be good even if called.

So, a reasonable amount of the time, everyone folds, sometimes one guy calls with 44, etc. etc. Pushing is most definitely +EV.

[BarryLyndon]

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The point is that no one has JJ+, and so with the money in the pot, we're gonna be good even if called.

So, a reasonable amount of the time, everyone folds, sometimes one guy calls with 44, etc. etc. Pushing is most definitely +EV.

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Good post. I'm on the fence, though I lean toward pushing. Here are some things to consider (and open up conversation)

I have to agree, even though my inability to push PF into 5 way limped pots at 75/150 with this stack is a potential leak in my game. I think that with 1200 in the pot though, even I gulp and push. You see 44 - 77 a good chunk of the time, which is nice. And of course you don't mind being up against other usual suspects like A9, A10, K10 (not as heavily weighted).

What's your cut off for pushing here, registrar? What do you think your FE is here? I have a difficult time with these two concepts in this spot.

My counterargument (or generally pussy concerns) against pushing here is that if there have been a lot of open raising, then it's possible UTG+1 is trapping. Stack sizes are low, so I really don't think FE is all that great here. It could be really low, like 120 - 300. Also with a couple of low stacks you are not necessarily doubling up. I think that KJ finds a call here, not to mention A8+, 88+, and you are not dealing with that possibility from just one player. Finally, spots like this make for very popular pushes, people are on to that, and 75/150 blinds allows me to find a less risky spot with my stack.

Having said that, thinking about it some more, I push. But, those are my concerns.

Barry

[bambam16]

Thanks for all the responses.

My thought process leaned toward pushing for the reasons registrar and Barry said. While there had been a lot of preflop raising, there were very few calls of large raises. Once the first limper limped and everyone else followed without raising, I didn't think anyone behind him had the guts or knowledge of the situation to call for most of their stacks.

Another thought I had was that my cards were pretty irrelevant here. I'm a big fan of ansky's post in the anthology re: playing situations and not necessarily cards, and I thought the situation made a shove profitable. I don't have the math to back it up at the moment though.

[levAA]

If you push villains get the following odds:

UTG+1: 1:1,6
MP1: 1:1,55
MP2: 1:1,4
MP3: 1:2,1
Button: 1:1,9

The biggest risk faktor is UTG+1 IMO, cause if he calls your push, the small-stacks (MP3 and Button) will be nearly forced in due to irresistable odds of about 1:3 and higher for button if MP3 calls.

But if we assume UTG+1 folds, but MP3 with pot odds of 1:2,1 calls with his 44-77 (what he should do), than Button gets pot odds of 1:2,6 (so he should also call with his A9,AT,KT...).

If both calls our push gives us pot odds of 1:3.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.027% 29.92% 00.10% 5670324828 19543008.00 { J8o }
Hand 1: 33.372% 33.27% 00.10% 6304284432 19543008.00 { 77-44 }
Hand 2: 36.601% 36.50% 00.10% 6916065012 19543008.00 { ATs-A9s, KTs, ATo-A9o, KTo }

we have odds to win this hand of 1:2,3 - so in this case a push is clearly +EV.

as said the main problems is UTG - if we can be somehow sure he is not trapping or unlikely to be calling with a low PP than the push looks fine.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
If you push villains get the following odds:

UTG+1: 1:1,6
MP1: 1:1,55
MP2: 1:1,4
MP3: 1:2,1
Button: 1:1,9

The biggest risk faktor is UTG+1 IMO, cause if he calls your push, the small-stacks (MP3 and Button) will be nearly forced in due to irresistable odds of about 1:3 and higher for button if MP3 calls.

But if we assume UTG+1 folds, but MP3 with pot odds of 1:2,1 calls with his 44-77 (what he should do), than Button gets pot odds of 1:2,6 (so he should also call with his A9,AT,KT...).

If both calls our push gives us pot odds of 1:3.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.027% 29.92% 00.10% 5670324828 19543008.00 { J8o }
Hand 1: 33.372% 33.27% 00.10% 6304284432 19543008.00 { 77-44 }
Hand 2: 36.601% 36.50% 00.10% 6916065012 19543008.00 { ATs-A9s, KTs, ATo-A9o, KTo }

we have odds to win this hand of 1:2,3 - so in this case a push is clearly +EV.

as said the main problems is UTG - if we can be somehow sure he is not trapping or unlikely to be calling with a low PP than the push looks fine.

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LevAA,

Where is KJ - KQ, AJ, and AA (for the first player only) in these ranges? When you factor those hands in, which I think you should, you get different results.

Barry

[levAA]

Barry,

I took these hands just as examples of possible holdings - after these bunch of limpers the later players could have limped with almost everything, where i think it is nearly impossible to give a precise range.

In the example given here i cut out UTG+1, as i mentioned - cause if he calls the small stacks get irresistable odds, which makes the push with J8o -EV.

[Pokerfarian]

I like the shove in this & similar spots.
I'm not convinced the small stacks are getting "irresistable odds" if UTG+1 calls, or even are more willing to call - 'better' odds but they're up against more than 1 hand