Steal attempt with J8 against 5 limpers?

[bambam16]

Stars $11 20k guaranteed.

Table has been pretty aggressive since blinds hit 75/150. At least one preflop raise and at least one call on almost every hand. I have been picking my spots to pick up a few chips here and there, but no big pots played as of recently. I've made a few calls of preflop raises in position that I had to give up on the flop, so I've lost some chips.

Given I have about 17 BBs, and the table seems weak with all the limps, is this an OK shove to pick up the blinds?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t4055)
UTG+1 (t2165)
MP1 (t2275)
MP2 (t7945)
MP3 (t1260)
CO (t15130)
Button (t1565)
Hero (t3450)
BB (t4210)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t200, MP1 calls t200, MP2 calls t200, MP3 calls t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t200, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (raises all in or completes?)</font>

[Dunkman]

Nah they're way too short for my tastes, you're likely to just end up with a 4 way AI I think.

[stevematador]

As for pushing, I don't believe you have any fold equity here, you're going to get a least one if not more callers here, and you will surely be behind. I fold and wait for a better spot, I'm sure others complete, but I don't even bother here, fold and save the 100 chips, I hate playing from the SB and if you hit your J you're going to probably lose all your chips to hands like QJ, KJ etc.

[levAA]

Push is bad here - MP3 and button's stack are already nearly in the size of the pot - so at least one of them will call.

J8o also has a very weak showdown potential - with your stack i would even consider folding it and not completing. the 100 chips you can use much better later.

[JammyDodga]

I think we have to call, 13 to 1 is just too good odds to pass up with any hand... Your implied odds of you hit 2 pair or trips make up the rest of the odds you need to call this.

That said if you call and hit a pair of jacks, you have to fold 100%, or else the neg implied odds fo this hand ruin it.

[levAA]

As always I disagree with you Jammy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] (but it's a good discussion everytime)

You will hit 2 pairs in 2% and trips in 1,35% - which makes a probability of 3,35% or 1:29. So you have to win 1700 chips more if you hit, and 2 of the stacks don't even have that much - so you will have to get all chips from a big stack, or stack 2 smaller ones.

I don't think that this is impossible, but i don't think you can achieve it often enough (btw you can also loose if you make 2 pairs, trips, which even needs higher implied odds than the ones given here).

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]
As always I disagree with you Jammy [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] (but it's a good discussion everytime)

You will hit 2 pairs in 2% and trips in 1,35% - which makes a probability of 3,35% or 1:29. So you have to win 1700 chips more if you hit, and 2 of the stacks don't even have that much - so you will have to get all chips from a big stack, or stack 2 smaller ones.

I don't think that this is impossible, but i don't think you can achieve it often enough (btw you can also loose if you make 2 pairs, trips, which even needs higher implied odds than the ones given here).

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi levAA, I think you get your maths a bit wrong. you cant just add 2% and 1.35% to get 3.35%

You need to calculate the chance of not hitting either, whish is
0.98x0.987=0.96
so you actually hit 2 pair or better 4% of the time.

Its not much but now you only need to win another 800 chips or so on average if you do hit, which in a multi-way pot is well do-able.

[levAA]

Hi Jammy,

thank you for the correction - you are right of course - which changes the odds to 1:24.

But you will need to win another 1100 chips to break even.

(Preflop with your SB 1300 - if investing 100 you need to get at least 2400)

i agree that this is possible - still borderline [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[JammyDodga]

Oh yeah, 100/4 isn't 20 is it?

Typical, get the complicated(ish) maths right and then mess up the easy bit.

I like this discussion though, I think I probably complete too much in the SB, normally do it if I'm getting 9 to 1 or better (i.e. 3 limpers) I think I best tighten up a bit unless stacks are deeper.

[registrar]

Shoving is going to be profitable here. It's a lot of chips in the middle and no one has JJ+.