#1
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Set on 3flush board - 10NL
Had only been at table for 15 hands or so; villain seemed loose.
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) SB: $5.35 <u>BB: $9.05</u> UTG: $10.90 <u>hero (CO): $10.60</u> BTN: $9.80 Preflop: hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG calls $0.10, <font color="red">hero raises to $0.50</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $0.40, UTG folds Flop: ($1.15) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">BB bets $0.10</font>, <font color="red">hero raises to $1.00</font>, BB calls $0.90 Turn: ($3.15) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">hero bets $2.40</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $7.55</font> |
#2
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
This is a really tough spot. That turn card is one of the worst possible cards that could've come. I also see a lot of players make small bets like that on the flop with draws hoping to see the next card cheaply. It'd depend on the opponent.
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#3
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
Bluff% + you have the best hand% > 55%
IMO, fold. |
#4
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
That is such a bad turn card and he CRAI. He has to have a flush a large portion of the time and it's 2.5 to 1 so not nearly enough to fill up. I don't know if I could fold this at the table though. And I guess no reads or stats after 15 hands?
I guess what it comes down to is I really think you're beat most of the time, but I just don't know if I can fold or even if I could now advise a fold. |
#5
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
kind of pot committed, no?
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#6
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
if your hand is better than his at least 10% of the time, you're priced in.
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#7
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
[ QUOTE ]
if your hand is better than his at least 10% of the time, you're priced in. [/ QUOTE ] How? |
#8
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
[ QUOTE ]
if your hand is better than his at least 10% of the time, you're priced in. [/ QUOTE ] Uh.....How do you figure that? BTW however you figured it, you're wrong. |
#9
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
bah more like 22.5% sorry. You boat up or better 21.7% of the time.
x+(1-x)*(10/46)=5.15/13.1 where x is the probability that your hand is best. (36/46)x+10/46=5.15/13.1 x=((5.15 / 13.1) - (10 / 46)) * (46 / 36) = 0.224554707 so you need to be winning at least this often for it to be profitable to call. Is this right? |
#10
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Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
instacall. he's got Ax so much more than a flush imo.
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