Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

Had only been at table for 15 hands or so; villain seemed loose.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $5.35
<u>BB: $9.05</u>
UTG: $10.90
<u>hero (CO): $10.60</u>
BTN: $9.80

Preflop: hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.10, <font color="red">hero raises to $0.50</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $0.40, UTG folds

Flop: ($1.15) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $0.10</font>, <font color="red">hero raises to $1.00</font>, BB calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.15) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">hero bets $2.40</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $7.55</font>

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

This is a really tough spot. That turn card is one of the worst possible cards that could've come. I also see a lot of players make small bets like that on the flop with draws hoping to see the next card cheaply. It'd depend on the opponent.

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

Bluff% + you have the best hand% &gt; 55%

IMO, fold.

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

That is such a bad turn card and he CRAI. He has to have a flush a large portion of the time and it's 2.5 to 1 so not nearly enough to fill up. I don't know if I could fold this at the table though. And I guess no reads or stats after 15 hands?


I guess what it comes down to is I really think you're beat most of the time, but I just don't know if I can fold or even if I could now advise a fold.

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

kind of pot committed, no?

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

if your hand is better than his at least 10% of the time, you're priced in.

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
if your hand is better than his at least 10% of the time, you're priced in.

[/ QUOTE ]

How?

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

[ QUOTE ]
if your hand is better than his at least 10% of the time, you're priced in.

[/ QUOTE ]


Uh.....How do you figure that?


BTW however you figured it, you're wrong.

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

bah more like 22.5% sorry. You boat up or better 21.7% of the time.

x+(1-x)*(10/46)=5.15/13.1 where x is the probability that your hand is best.

(36/46)x+10/46=5.15/13.1

x=((5.15 / 13.1) - (10 / 46)) * (46 / 36) = 0.224554707 so you need to be winning at least this often for it to be profitable to call. Is this right?

Re: Set on 3flush board - 10NL
 

instacall. he's got Ax so much more than a flush imo.