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#31
08-30-2007, 01:45 PM
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Re: Is it just me or is this ridiculous?
Who cares how you went out. You didn't cash in 16 tournaments. That's barely running bad, if you're a winning player, and its a just [censored] 16 tournament otm streak.
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#32
08-30-2007, 01:51 PM
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Re: Is it just me or is this ridiculous?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] come on what is so hard to see about this? These are not hands taken from my last 100 tourneys but from the last 16 I have played. If I had lost with worse hands/ coinflips and a couple beats I wouldn't be annoyed, but losing 9/16 where I had average of 75% equity counts as a beat surely. You say I have played poorly, please point out which hands you think I screwed up. [/ QUOTE ] Why is so hard for you to understand the selection bias here. I lose 100% of my final hands, no matter what cards I go in with (unless I win the whole thing). LDO. the fact that you lost 9/16 as 75% favorite is irrelevant. If you face this situation 7 times in a tournament, then you only have a 13.3% chance of surviving all 7. That's why tournaments have so much variance. There is nothing unusual about what you've presented. [/ QUOTE ] This is right on the money and basically exactly what I was going to post. I would bet that if you charted every singe one of your all in hands (even the ones that you win) and calculate the equity then things would be pretty much what would be statistically expected (assuming your sample size was big enough).
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#33
08-30-2007, 02:10 PM
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Re: Is it just me or is this ridiculous?
why does it seem like you push a tonnnn of hands preflop in cash games like AQ, 1010, etc... Maybe buy in deeper so you can actually fold on schitty flops
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#34
08-30-2007, 02:30 PM
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Re: Is it just me or is this ridiculous?
[ QUOTE ]
the fact that you lost 9/16 as 75% favorite is irrelevant. If you face this situation 7 times in a tournament, then you only have a 13.3% chance of surviving all 7. [/ QUOTE ] Where do you learn stuff like this?
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#35
08-30-2007, 02:38 PM
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Re: Is it just me or is this ridiculous?
[ QUOTE ]
Where do you learn stuff like this? [/ QUOTE ] Level? If not, the answer is College Stats class. The chance of something with a 75% likelihood happening 7 times in a row is (.75)to the seventh power.
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