Estimating Range based on HUD

[ymu]

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Say still 6 to 7 players left and it is folded to you in the SB. You and the SB both have around 10x the BB.
a)HUD displays stats of around 0-10% VP$IP. Do we all agree to push with ATC here? He's obviously a rock.
b)BB has around 10-20% VP$IP.
Around what range would you guys consider a 20% VP$IP player with a high PFR. Around maybe 8-9%=>AT+,66+? This is pretty much ATC push.
c)BB has around 20-25% VP$IP.=> KJ+? this is still ATC
d) around 25-30%=>
e) 30% and up..

what ranges would you put for c,d,e?

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You assumptions are wrong.

In a), he obviously knows what he is doing, and so should call tight - but only as tight as he thinks is correct for your push range.

b-e) We know nothing of what these villains call big raises with - only how many hands they likes to see a cheap flop with and that they're bad. They might call too tight or too loose, and it might be too tight off the bubble and too loose on it.


Remember that the correct strategy for an STT depends on the situation, and there are legitimate variations in the early levels. You can't categorise players in the same way as you would in a cash game.

[The Venetian]

Look at 50/100, 75/150, 100/200 steal blinds pct. A good player (w/ sig. sample size) should be like 20/30/40, definitely increasing.

A lot of mediocre players don't steal enough, so when they raise, it's completely legit. They keep the same pf raise range whether the blinds are 10/20 or 200/400/25. Never, ever adjust their ranges for position or blind size.

However, good players or overly aggressive pf players figure out that when the blinds get into the mid ranges, they can raise more. The difference between the two is that the good player has discretion and the LAGtard doesn't. The good player is much more likely to be playing a situation, so you have to consider that.

Practice, including play and review, and notes are really the best method for figuring this out.

[udbrky]

I've added "Calls preflop raises" to my HUD, so I know how often the person likes to call them.

I watch how much their VPIP/PFR changes. Like who gets more aggressive as the blinds go up, and who stays the same.

Pokerstove the range % and then run some calculations to see what hands are what % against that range. I started an Excel file, showing what hands win 35%, 40%, 50%, etc. against hand ranges.

[mr_tea]

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Look at 50/100, 75/150, 100/200 steal blinds pct. A good player (w/ sig. sample size) should be like 20/30/40, definitely increasing

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I understand what you're saying but I thought PAHUD could only display based on # of players and not blinds through filters. You would have to type the name of the player into PT while playing? would there be another way. (Because if you're playing more a lot of table, i find this pretty hard)

What steal % should i expect to be at in the higher levels 200-400. 40+?

[mr_tea]

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In a), he obviously knows what he is doing, and so should call tight - but only as tight as he thinks is correct for your push range.

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I believe that 0-10% is way too tight for a turbo game, he's probably only playing premium.AA,KK,QQ,AK maybe JJ. So when you do a push, at 10x SB vs BB i doubt he'll call you with a big range of cards especially if this is your first attempt and you haven't been doing loose stuff because he can wait for a more +EV call. The blinds are still relatively small.

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b-e) We know nothing of what these villains call big raises with - only how many hands they likes to see a cheap flop with and that they're bad. They might call too tight or too loose, and it might be too tight off the bubble and too loose on it.

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Alright, you got a point there but then what to do? should we consider other stats here? maybe add in a few stats such as calling preflop raises?

[Finnisher]

By the time you have a big enough sample size for att to steal, calls pfr etc, you should have some reads on the player or at least know if he's a pushbot, nit, bad LAG w/e.

[BicVicTheQuick]

I play 12 tables so my stats are very, very important to me. I use the following stats for the following reasons:

1. Nr. of Hands (obvious): This is very important for me because If I have played many hands with somebody he is a regular who most probably knows what he's doing!

2. VPIP: I consider somebody with 15-20% (maybe 15-25%) a better than average player. He's not necessary good but at least not a super donk. At least he knows something about preflop play.

3. Preflop raise: Obvously if this is too high, he is rasing too loose and a steal raise all-in has a higher % to be successful.

4. Att. to steal blinds: for the reasons mentioned before.

I know these stats don't tell the whole story about somebody but most of the times that's all I have to base my decision on and I'm doing quite well with it.

[mr_tea]

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By the time you have a big enough sample size for att to steal, calls pfr etc, you should have some reads on the player or at least know if he's a pushbot, nit, bad LAG w/e. [/QUOTE]
This is true if you're not playing a lot of tables but becomes a lot more difficult with more tables.

[ymu]

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In a), he obviously knows what he is doing, and so should call tight - but only as tight as he thinks is correct for your push range.

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I believe that 0-10% is way too tight for a turbo game, he's probably only playing premium.AA,KK,QQ,AK maybe JJ. So when you do a push, at 10x SB vs BB i doubt he'll call you with a big range of cards especially if this is your first attempt and you haven't been doing loose stuff because he can wait for a more +EV call. The blinds are still relatively small.

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b-e) We know nothing of what these villains call big raises with - only how many hands they likes to see a cheap flop with and that they're bad. They might call too tight or too loose, and it might be too tight off the bubble and too loose on it.

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Alright, you got a point there but then what to do? should we consider other stats here? maybe add in a few stats such as calling preflop raises?

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You cannot say "tight stats = tight calling range" in an STT. Tight stats suggest he knows what he's doing - if he should call a push with 20% in a particular situation, assume he will call a push with 20%. The guy knows what he's doing - remember that.

I answered the rest in my earlier post. Yes - you need to have some idea of what they consider a good hand for calling a big raise with. Some looseys will call AI too tight some of the time (especially early), whereas others just think JTo is a good hand. You need to manipulate your HUD stats to give you this info, or pay more attention to the table.