Estimating Range based on HUD

mr_tea · #1 08-28-2007, 08:36 PM

Hey everyone, how many of you guys have been in a push or fold situation without any solid reads on players? (especially when multitabling a lot of tables).

So do any of you guys have any guidelines for estimating based only HUD stats. So what stats should we use and how should we use them. I'm surprised there have no been no threads for this because without correct range estimations our ICM pushes are pretty much useless).

Obviously, it's just an estimation, however it's still better than nothing. And please don't write messages like play less table so you can have a better read, it's not the point of the topic (there are still situations where you won't have too much a read even if you're playing few tables).

mattiesmat · #2 08-28-2007, 08:49 PM

Very interesting topic and I have been wondering this and thinking about posting myself.
Factors that make a hand range I can think of are stack sizes, positions, VP$IP, aggression, fold to bet%, number of players, M/#BB's left.
It would be awesome if there would be a balanced formula, but I doubt that could be close to the truth.

mr_tea · #3 08-28-2007, 09:10 PM

Yeah, i doubt you would have the time to plug in a formula while playing though lol. VP$IP, fold to bet % (small blind and big blind) are probably the most importants ones.

But i'm not too sure how to assign VP$IP to ranges, i would definitely need help on this one.

BradleyT · #4 08-28-2007, 09:23 PM

I was pushing into a supernit (8/4) last night who kept folding till he picked up kings and lost to my 83o - LDO like kings are any good there buddy.

That's about the only obvious example I can come up with - the ubernit. The tight players (say 15-20% VP$IP with a corresponding PFR of 5-15) are probably the ones who know to adjust their ranges. Whether they adjust it properly or improperly is another matter though.

Edit - and of course stack sizes will matter in most cases.

mattiesmat · #5 08-28-2007, 09:30 PM

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Yeah, i doubt you would have the time to plug in a formula while playing though lol. VP$IP, fold to bet % (small blind and big blind) are probably the most importants ones.

But i'm not too sure how to assign VP$IP to ranges, i would definitely need help on this one.

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The formula should run and printed like other stats automatically.

ymu · #6 08-28-2007, 10:04 PM

I'd just assume that tight preflop stats early mean they know what they're doing - range accordingly (they'll be pushing loose and calling tight).

Post-flop aggro is useful if you're not sure what their betting pattern is saying about their range post-flop.

HUD preflop stats are a lot trickier for loose players IMO. Some limp with anything they consider a good hand and will call a raise, and often AI, with all of it. Others limp with anything they consider playable but know they shouldn't call a raise with most of it.

The first type tends to call pushes too loose throughout; the second may call a tad too tight in some spots, but probably doesn't adjust well to the bubble and may call too loose then. Both types tend to push too little because they like limping.

Those that have a stupidly low raise % should usually be taken very seriously when they raise, and often when they push.

Things like cold-call raise, limp-call/limp-fold frequency might help if you can get your HUD to display it. I use a cheapo HUD for cash only and it won't do everything I want. PT doesn't support tourneys for my site, and I only single table at the moment because I'm trying to improve my reading ability. With that disclaimer, it's my impression that a lot of HUD stats given as reads in posts aren't really very informative and/or may need careful interpretation.

ymu · #7 08-28-2007, 10:15 PM

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But i'm not too sure how to assign VP$IP to ranges, i would definitely need help on this one.

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The simplest thing is to ask pokerstove what the top x% is - with x being the % for the range you're interested in. Click the player x button, go to the preflop tab and drag the slider along to the right %. Apply, go back to the player and the range is in the box.

32/8 suggests he's limping summat like 44+,A2s+,K3s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A4o+,K7o+,Q8 o+,J9o+,T9o
and raising summat like 88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+

If his actual range is more weighted to raggy As, small PPs and suited gappers than high cards then this won't be perfect, but it'll often be close enough, and it rarely hurts you (he's usually weaker, not stronger, than the range you gave him).

If he's playing with awareness of position, then his raising range is tighter UTG and looser in LP. You need to adjust for this also.

The Venetian · #8 08-28-2007, 10:36 PM

A hugely, hugely important factor when putting opponents on ranges is whether they adjust to position/blinds or not. Att. to Steal Blinds is a great stat in PT.

mr_tea · #9 08-28-2007, 11:13 PM

Quote:

A hugely, hugely important factor when putting opponents on ranges is whether they adjust to position/blinds or not. Att. to Steal Blinds is a great stat in PT.

Hi venetian, i'm just wondering if you use the filters for the # of players. Also, how are we suppose to know if they are adapting to the circumstances. I'm guessing you assume he isn't adjusting his game if his att to steal blinds is at a low % late game. Do you use any other stats such a VP$IP? Could you please elaborate [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I know you're a very solid SNG player so it would mean a lot for your thoughts on this.

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The formula should run and printed like other stats automatically.

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Going to have to find a smart math guy to make some equation LoL, and incoporate it into a program.

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The tight players (say 15-20% VP$IP with a corresponding PFR of 5-15) are probably the ones who know to adjust their ranges.

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That means that you will keep the stats from the 9 handed. You don't use the # of table filters as the number of player diminishes?

I think we should just stick to estimating ranges for for PUSH/CALLING all in scenarios. This is where most the money is made anyways.

Say still 6 to 7 players left and it is folded to you in the SB. You and the SB both have around 10x the BB.
a)HUD displays stats of around 0-10% VP$IP. Do we all agree to push with ATC here? He's obviously a rock.
b)BB has around 10-20% VP$IP.
Around what range would you guys consider a 20% VP$IP player with a high PFR. Around maybe 8-9%=>AT+,66+? This is pretty much ATC push.
c)BB has around 20-25% VP$IP.=> KJ+? this is still ATC
d) around 25-30%=>
e) 30% and up..

what ranges would you put for c,d,e?

Jbrochu · #10 08-28-2007, 11:53 PM

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I'd just assume that tight preflop stats early mean they know what they're doing - range accordingly (they'll be pushing loose and calling tight).

Post-flop aggro is useful if you're not sure what their betting pattern is saying about their range post-flop.

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This is almost exactly how I use it also. I'm generally only playing 4 tables or less. I use PAHUD early when I can't follow the action closely enough. As the number of players get reduced on each table I start making adjusted reads based on observation combined with the stats.