Badly Played?

[Robbie01]

This is so standard and played the ONLY way you can play it NH

[pzhon]

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the "correct" amount to bet in order to push out the draws is quickly heading towards the amount that you will only get called with if you are drawing dead.

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No, it's not. Your judgement is really far off. If your intuition tells you that a two-tone A84 flop is bad or mediocre for AQ, or that AQ isn't a good hand, or that people won't call with many worse hands, or that this hand is not worth protecting, then you need to revise your intuition, not try to convince the world it is wrong.

[fracas]

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Quick example, let's say the pot is $100, and there's two players to the flop. You're holding Ah 10s. The flop comes down Ac 9c 2d. You opponent checks to you. You figure him to be on a flush draw with two clubs.

There are 9 clubs left, and two cards to come, which means he should hit it 1 out of 3 times, or 1/3 of the time. This means that he will win 1 and lose two, or that he's a 2:1 underdog.

If you bet out $50, which makes the pot $150, he's getting 3:1 on his money. If you bet out $100, he's getting 2:1 on his money ($200/$100). As longs as his odds of hitting and the price the pot is paying is better or even, he's correct to call. In order to protect your hand and give him the wrong odds to call, you have to bet out more than $100. $150 to $200 would be about right.

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The problem with your example is you're calculating as if Villain gets both streets to catch his flush for the price of one. Hero gets to charge him once for the turn card, and again for the river. Only if Hero is out of ammo does Villain get both streets for the first price.

[LiveInPeace]

>>>If your intuition tells you that a two-tone A84 flop is bad or mediocre for AQ.

Bad, no. Mediocre against any reasonably strong table after 4 callers to a raise pre-flop, yes.

>>>or that AQ isn't a good hand,

I agree AQ is a good starting hand.

>>>or that people won't call with many worse hands,

If people are prepared to call a big bet on the flop with worse hands, then those callers are weak players. The play isn't too bad against weak players, because you will get value from dead callers. Against a table of strong players there is little such value and the ONLY value is in pushing out the draws.

[poker_bill]

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Quick example, let's say the pot is $100, and there's two players to the flop. You're holding Ah 10s. The flop comes down Ac 9c 2d. You opponent checks to you. You figure him to be on a flush draw with two clubs.

There are 9 clubs left, and two cards to come, which means he should hit it 1 out of 3 times, or 1/3 of the time. This means that he will win 1 and lose two, or that he's a 2:1 underdog.

If you bet out $50, which makes the pot $150, he's getting 3:1 on his money. If you bet out $100, he's getting 2:1 on his money ($200/$100). As longs as his odds of hitting and the price the pot is paying is better or even, he's correct to call. In order to protect your hand and give him the wrong odds to call, you have to bet out more than $100. $150 to $200 would be about right.

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The problem with your example is you're calculating as if Villain gets both streets to catch his flush for the price of one. Hero gets to charge him once for the turn card, and again for the river. Only if Hero is out of ammo does Villain get both streets for the first price.

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Which is why I suggested looking it up. There's too many variables you have to take into account: Stack sizes, position, player types (LAG, TAG, etc), the board, number of people in the pot, cash game vs tournament for starters. I'm not a teacher, and there's no need for me to be one. Start buying the 2+2 books, in five months, I've gone from chum to baby shark. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I can't remember which Sklansky book it's in, but it states that you make money when your opponents make mistakes. If you always bet enough so that the drawing hand is getting the wrong odds to call, then overall, you're going to win.

We've all had bad beats when some donk calls with the two outer and hits, but if they never hit, they'd never come back, or they'd start to learn to play, and take away our profit.

[davebwell]

when liveinpeace advised to check the flop and re-evaluate when it gets back to you I originally thought that was the worse advise possible but now I am not so sure.

I think the flop bet was a mistake. He should have raised more if that would actually get people to fold or just limped behind if a big raise only bloats the pot and doesn't get more people to fold. The worst possible scenario is having a very good but not great hand OOP in a multiway pot which is where OP ended up.

Now that you are here with 5 to the flop and a T500 pot you have to ask yourself "If I bet close to the pot, what do I do if I am raised?"

My answer to that question is that betting 400 is going to commit me to this pot for better or worse because if I have to go all-in it's going to be 1050 to call in a 1950 pot and 2:1 is good enough odds against the range of hands that may push at this level"

I figure the reasonable range of pushing hands to be A4, A8, 88, 7c6c, 6c5c, AcXc, 44 and perhaps 2c3c. Then other possible pushes to come from players with any hand with 2 clubs as hole cards.

Now the pertinent question is, "Do I want to commit myself with TPGK against 4 opponents early in a tournament when I am OOP"

If the table is as weak as most people assume I think the answer is there are better times to gamble. If the table is tough as everyone assumes LiveinPeace assumes, I think the answer is there are certainly better situations to risk your whole stack.

Even with this rambling that I've done I don't know that I could check/fold but I can see it as more reasonable than I did when it was first presented.

[LiveInPeace]

Right, and check/call picks up a LOT of value from air bluffers, this is value lost if Hero comes out betting.

[gedanken]

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No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
9 players

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not sure where the tournament thinking is coming from. I thought OP mentioned it, but can't find it now...

does the stakes of the game impact the decision? At the micros where I play, this flop action is oh-so-standard (as is the result).


Against STRONG opponents, tp2k has RIO problems. But 5 to the flop for 5BB? Doesn't sound like strong opponents. Anyway, I'd think we desperately need to protect this hand from the draw. With 4 opponents, it's more likely than usual.


Main take-home lesson here: raise more preflop! AQ oop in a multiway raised pot is the worst. Raise enough that you're reasonably sure to be heads up. Taking down the pot right now would be the best possible outcome.

Making the right move preflop generally has the result of making your post-flop decisions easier.


edit, found it:
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I played this hand earlier in an mtt.

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so reads on the villain would be important, but basically this is totally normal, and I really don't see how you could check/fold this flop.

[pzhon]

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If people are prepared to call a big bet on the flop with worse hands, then those callers are weak players.


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You mean they are bad or loose players. Weak (as in weak tight) would mean they fold too much.

Betting is good against strong players, too, because

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A strong player with a decent (but worse) ace knows that you may bet on this flop without an ace. A strong player may call with air or a weak draw in the hopes that you give up on the turn, setting up a profitable bluff or semi-bluff. This is one way to counter the strategy of trying to turn trash into a premium hand by raising from the blinds and betting any flop.

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Strong players will often have draws that you need to push out or charge by betting.

However, assuming that random players are strong when they just limp/call is bad.

Checking the flop is a bad play. You have a strong hand. Protect it, and get value from weaker hands, instead of giving up before you see any aggression from your opponents at all.