($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says "Hello!"

[Dan Cole]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are we not considering the possibility of the villain having a higher flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

because he wouldn't call with a higher flush draw?

[Dr_Wonderful]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that villain here is going to be pushed off of his hand here. Hero has been busy and probably doesn't have a tight image. I think villain is too likely to rely on his "read" (guess) that hero has a flush draw and make a cowboy call with any pair. He'd have guessed right and hero will be in a lot of trouble.

[b3nign]

Fold and pick a better spot.

So you let go of 700, but its only about 2x bb. At these blinds there is essentially no difference between 4000 and 4700 in chips.

There was a reason you only raised 700 and not the pot and that reason is this:

You we're willing to let it go in case you got called.

Also it's perfectly fine for the villain (already big stack) to get a little bigger. Puts more pressure on the little guys to panic.

SNG are all about survival, survival, survival!

[Mench]

shapshove not close. bubble, have outs, he doesnt lead anything strong, etc. he is bet/folding. so shove it in.

[splitzonthur]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you have the implied odds as he'll be careful giving away his stack on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

That' doesn't make too much sense. He's calling raises from the chipleader when he's in 2nd and it's the bubble. Insta classification as a donk - albeit a donk with a king in his hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero raised on the button as the big stack, villain's calling range is pretty wide. Just because he called a preflop raise in the BB doesn't make him a donk. Also, I don't care who you're playing against, implied odds are smaller on the bubble.

[Hamburglar]

I think villain is too likely to rely on his "read" (guess) that hero has a flush draw and make a cowboy call with any pair.

this is almost never going to happen.

[Dr_Wonderful]

[ QUOTE ]

I think villain is too likely to rely on his "read" (guess) that hero has a flush draw and make a cowboy call with any pair.

this is almost never going to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this almost never going to happen? Low level players love to bust bluffs on the bubble, especially when it seems plausible that hero could be on a flush draw, and by pushing all in you scream flush draw.

[typically]

I don't think over-pushing screams flush draw; not to me anyways, it screams TP, maybe AQ, QK, or even a set, that wants to extract maximum value from a flush draw. I mean who would be crazy enough to risk his stack on the bubble with a 4:1 draw?? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm not sure what to make of the lead flop bet. It is most likely a donk bet with some kind of draw or a pocket pair that is speculating, but it can also be a clever trap, for the simple reason that it sets off the alarms bells discussed above and sometimes induces a big over-push. I would have to have a good read on this guy being solid to give him credit for that though.

Otherwise I don't mind the push idea. If he's got a better FD he "should" fold it, and in fact you'd expect him to fold everything but TPTK or better... which I don't believe he has because even a donk knows to c-raise with these hands here versus an aggressive opponent. I think he folds enough to make this +EV.

[santiagoz]

[ QUOTE ]
shapshove not close. bubble, have outs, he doesnt lead anything strong, etc. he is bet/folding. so shove it in.

[/ QUOTE ]
QFT
push the donkbet ever!