($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t150/t300
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2520
Hero: t4720
SB: t1860
BB: t4400

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t700</font>, SB folds, BB calls t400 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t1150)</font>.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1550, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets t800</font>, Hero?

I was pretty busy lately, busting a player when I raised to steal with KTs, he pushed and I got nice odds to call. This is the very next hand, the blinds went up. Well, the villain is not a donk actually, but definitely on the looser side and I'm not sure he completely understands what he is doing and what he should be doing...

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

I let this go. He gave you 2:1 when you're 4:1 to hit on the next street, and he can price you out again on the next street. Raising puts you in harms way, as this is a flop he hits often, and what are you hoping he has, TJo? He could be probing with like TT, but it costs you too much to find out. Pick a better spot.

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

Easy fold, you tried to win the pot preflop and didn't succeed. Now you're being given improper odds to draw to your flush, I don't think you have the implied odds as he'll be careful giving away his stack on the bubble.

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

Sorry, my odds above may have been a tiny bit off, but I think the logic holds true. Basically, you don't want to be drawing in a STT on the bubble, and I think raising screws you.

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

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I don't think you have the implied odds as he'll be careful giving away his stack on the bubble.

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That' doesn't make too much sense. He's calling raises from the chipleader when he's in 2nd and it's the bubble. Insta classification as a donk - albeit a donk with a king in his hand...

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn.

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

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He's calling raises from the chipleader when he's in 2nd and it's the bubble. Insta classification as a donk - albeit a donk with a king in his hand...

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I wouldn't classify him as a donk just because he called a small raise from the BB when hes practically tied with the chipleader + we have no idea how often Hero has been raising.

I would have folded this hand preflop but as played I think you have to shove.

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn.

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Winner.

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn.

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He might be protect/charging against the flush draw with a king. For a shove to be +$EV we need donk to fold 60% of the time here if hero has ~37% equity.

Can you get a donk to release here that often ?

The following are the $EV figures for the % of times that villian calls.

20% =&gt; +3.70%
30% =&gt; +2.03%
40% =&gt; +0.35%
50% =&gt; -1.32%
60% =&gt; -3.00%
70% =&gt; -4.67%
80% =&gt; -6.34%

I think you can push here if u think villian is folding &lt; 50% of the time. You should make up the -$EV between 40% - 50% by been able to pwn the bubble the times that villian folds.

Re: ($24) Attempt to bully at the bubble, a donk says \"Hello!\"
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'd push. nobody is leading a king in this spot. so he probably has a queen or middle pair. you have a ton of FE and if called you have flush outs. plus when you take down that big pot you can pwn.

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Why are we not considering the possibility of the villain having a higher flush draw?