JJ facing overpush on turn

[_Apollo_]

[ QUOTE ]
af is pretty key here, right now I have no idea what he's flat calling the flop with except hearts. But if he's passive, then that opens up to all sorts of things.

[/ QUOTE ]

I left out AF because of the small samplesize. His stats so far look decent that's why I included it instead of typing unknown.

His total af was +- 2.0. I did not have much of a read on him but he plays agressive postflop when he is the preflop raiser.
But I had only like 25 hands on him if I remember correctly.

[traz]

I'm 99% sure I fold here though. If he's gonna shove a draw, he's probably shoving it on the flop.

[_Apollo_]

yeh, I also think it's a fold even though we will lay down the best hand a good amount of the time but we just don't beat his range I guess.
Wasn't sure so thanks for replies.

JJ or AA does not make any difference here in our decision to fold, right?

[Ringmaster]

[ QUOTE ]
make a range for villain

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that's kinda the point of the thread, no?

[freeucm]

Why not check turn?

[Ringmaster]

[ QUOTE ]
we just don't beat his range I guess

[/ QUOTE ]

WHAT RANGE?

No one has really put him on a range at all here. If we know villain's range than this is an easy math problem. This is a difficult spot because there aren't really any hands a 22/16 villain could have in this spot that are consistent with his play, at least, not that I can see. This leads me to believe that villain is bluffing/semi-bluffing a large % of the time here.

Saying fold, your beat, really doesn't contribute to the discussion.

[PartysOver]

66,77,88,99,TT,67,56,9T,45,79,89,etc

he's on the button. he flat called the raise. this looks like PP or SC/SG. his range for preflop is sc/sg, 22-JJ, Axs, AJo-AQo... he's going to be folding the majority of these unimproved. this just isn't a bluff. now stove any of that range that hit something on the flop

it's unlikely he's semibluffing-he'd pop this and try to get it in on the flop. I really doubt he's bluffing, JJ is crushed here. I can definetly see made hands waiting for the turn to come alive. Not everyone raises their sets/straights off this flop. If you want, add in some semibluffs to his range. your range is still destroyed i believe

edit/ lol at him pushing turn for 145 more as a bluff. also think about how often he has to be bluffing here vs. probably a 5-10% equity for you to even break even on this call. i don't understand why you want to call here

[PartysOver]

pretty much best case scenario:
Board: 6h 8s 7h 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.459% 48.27% 01.19% 892 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 50.541% 49.35% 01.19% 912 22.00 { JJ-66, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, T9s, 97s+, 86s, 75s+, 65s }


closer to this:

Board: 6h 8s 7h 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.558% 36.83% 01.72% 470 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 61.442% 59.72% 01.72% 762 22.00 { JJ-66, T9s, 86s, 76s, 65s }

i think it's more like this:
Board: 6h 8s 7h 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 05.398% 05.40% 00.00% 38 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 94.602% 94.60% 00.00% 666 0.00 { 88-66, T9s, 86s, 76s, 65s }


yes it's strange that he chose to wait until the turn on this flop. but that shows more strength than weakness

edit/ assuming villain is thinking let's think about how he views you. 13 pfr = he's not going to be dicking around postflop with you, he's prepared to see overplayed overpairs here everytime

[Ringmaster]

Villain never has 66-88.

Why would he slowplay on the wettest board imaginable, only to over-shove the turn when he fills up and now has FDs/OESDs drawing dead.

If he's slowplaying the flop, he's slowplaying the turn, be consistent.

Also, we only need about 40% equity to make this call. If you take out the sets on the flop your second range looks like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

968 games 0.005 secs 193,600 games/sec

Board: 6h 8s 7h 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.587% 47.31% 02.27% 458 22.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 50.413% 48.14% 02.27% 466 22.00 { JJ-99, T9s, 86s, 76s, 65s }

[casaubon]

I c/c turn, but a bet almost has to be bet/fold.

I don't think you can rule 77/88/66 out because we raised utg and so we don't have a lot of straight draws or flush draws in our range. I'm not saying it's a good way to play a set, but people get really committed to trapping with sets. Maybe a 50% discount.