Play along: all fold to A8 in the small blind

[ProfessorBen]

check/folds. Like I said a street earlier.

Edit: Yeah, if you trust your read enough that you want to barrel away AK/AJ/KJ, go ahead and do it, but that play is completly read-based and you probably shouldn't even venture to post it. Doing anything but check/folding here is unorthodox.

[Lanzalot]

If you trust your read [edit: and the meaning of the "read" you perceived is what you, the OP, spent two paragraphs explaining and describing, maybe because player psychology is more important short-handed or it is simply the most interesting aspect of the hand] and you think he will have a hard time calling the river with an unimproved AK or AJ, betting is the best.

Sometimes players can check there cards like that on the flop when they are suited and trying to see if they have a BDFD. The second peak would dissuade me that's the case here.

[LV_Nathan]

[ QUOTE ]
If you trust your read and you think he will have a hard time calling the river with an unimproved AK or AJ, betting is the best.

[/ QUOTE ]

My problem here, and one of the reasons I posted this hand, is that I felt strongly that he was weak (no spoilers yet!). But either
1. He's not folding such a draw heads up on the turn (nor should he) or
2. My read is off and I am really far behind.

With the pot ballooned preflop, I really want to take it down and feel like I can. But what is the best way to do that? Is it even worth it when my only realistic chance is on the river, and one way or another I am going to have to pay a bet to get there? What do the effective odds dictate in a spot like this? Does the combination of the odds of being behind/being drawn out on make this a -EV spot when turn betting is included?

[Lanzalot]

There's alot to think about here. In my experience, when a player checks there cards like that it's the sign of making a straight or being on a straight draw. Proceeding on that assumption, the best way to take down this now sizable pot is to convince him that he needs to hit in order to win. It is a little more likely that he is ahead here than that you are, but he may not realize that. It would be hard for him to call you down with an Ace high busted draw on the river after you bet the turn and fired again on 5th St. He could easily think that that Q hit you somehow as it might pair alot of the hands you would have even steal-raised with. Just the way I see it. Save pots, not bets.

[ProfessorBen]

We're in a 3/6 game where people routinely call down trash. I don't think 2 barrels is getting villain to fold AK/AJ in a blind steal. We already beat KJ.

[LV_Nathan]

Alright, I thought a lot about this over lunch and scribbled down some numbers. Assuming that Villian has either
1. AK, AJ or KJ, or
2. We're beat already.
The question is, what percentage of the time does he need to have option 1 for a two street bluff to show a profit?

In option one, we bet on the turn and are called by all hands. If an Ace, King or Jack comes on the river, we check/fold. If a nine comes, that's a little fuzzier, but I figure we're beat say, a third of the time. So we bet a nine and fold to a raise. All other cards, we bet and win. We have an Ace, and villian has two unknown broadways, leaving 9 broadways out of 44 cards to beat and/or scare us, and 4 nines. So 20.5% of the time we bet the turn, c/f the river, and lose 1 bet. 3% of the time we bet a nine and fold to a raise, losing 2 bets. 76.5% of the time we win five bets (pot plus villian's turn call; villian folds river). I am excluding the possibility that we may occasionally pay off if an ace hits.
This scenario has an EV=5(.765)-1(.205)-2(.03)=+3.52 BB

For option two, we are already beaten. We invest 2 bets with no chance of getting them back. Well, let's be optimistic (?) and say that 25% of the time we are really beaten, and villian raises our turn bet and we can confidently fold Ace-eight high. (We would also fold to a river raise, but that still costs us two bets.)
This has an EV=-1(.25)-2(.75)= -1.75 BB

Which leaves the equation to solve:
X(3.52)+(100-X)(-1.75)=0
Where X is the percentage of the time villian needs to have AK, AJ, or KJ for the play to be break even.
And it turns out X=33.2%

I'm surprised by this figure. The villian only needs unpaired broadways a little more than a third of the time in order to make donking the turn and river a moneymaker here. If there's anything wrong with my math or logic, corrections are welcomed.

(Side note: there are of course other possibilities. Villian might call with a better Ace high, or he might have some bizarre unpaired junk he wanted to "defend his blind" with. For simplicity, I assumed these possibilities cancel out.)

[raphet99]

next street plz

[HoneyBadger]

[ QUOTE ]
For this reason, KJ seemed the least likely. Unfortunately, it was the only hand I was beating.


[/ QUOTE ]
J9

[ProfessorBen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For this reason, KJ seemed the least likely. Unfortunately, it was the only hand I was beating.


[/ QUOTE ]
J9

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain unlikely to 3-bet this at this limit, or most limits for that matter.

[LV_Nathan]

Turn:(4BB) T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero bets. </font> Villian calls.

River:(6BB) T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks. Villian checks.

Yep, I got scared and ignored my reads. I had a sinking feeling that I'd made a bad mistake as soon as I checked. There's just something about the 2 street bluff that messes with my head. Sometime I take the worst of all possible paths and bluff the first street only. I'm not sure how big of a leak this lack of follow-through is, but it's definately a leak.

Villian shows A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to win pot (6 BB).