#11
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Re: Resteal in stars 100k
I think the biggest concern here is that we have the biggest stack at the table, and donking off our chips with 98s isnt a very solid plan. Now, as to a resteal, well, sure this might well work here, stack sizes are OK, but not fantastic. My concern is that we have just no reason to be restealing... That has a balancing effect of him knowing we have no reason to gamble, which tightens his calling range, which of course is one of the most important parts of a resteal. SO the questions:
How wide is he raising us? How tight is he calling us? He might be raising wide, since he is on the button with folds to him. He might tighten slightly seeing that BB is almost getting priced in with anything due to his short stack. We do have the risk that BB wants to go three way, and going three ways is quite bad for our holdings. How tight will he call? Well, his pot odds arent bad for us, he will have 14k behind and have to call 14k to win 21k ish? so he needs to think he will be no worse a dog than like 60/40 ish... Bubble effects also point to your favor. All in all, most all the signs point to a decent resteal, his stack size is ok but not perfect, his steal position is ok but not perfect since BB is shorty, tournament position is also ok but not perfect bubble. Now, as to me personally, no I dont resteal here. I dont resteal ever (*wink*)... If I three bet you in a tournament its only with the stone nuts, you see. If I *WERE* a restealer tho, this would be a good spot for it. What would make it automatic? If I knew this player could lay down a hand like ATo/AJo or even better AQo. IF I were a restealer and I found a guy that could muck AQo I would find myself restealing from them... I like to know that they can at least fold a KQo or ATo or 66 before I do it to them tho. Err wait, I *NEVER* resteal... 4Card |
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