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#11
08-09-2007, 07:18 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
[ QUOTE ]
Without history I rarely 4-bet here. I agree with Renton that I usually call AK and TT+ and fold everything else, because I'm OOP. If I were in position I'd call much looser. [/ QUOTE ] okay, for a little speculation: if mp1 limped, you are in mp3 and raise 4xBB, and it folds to him, and he comes in with 12xBB, you call? 
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#12
08-09-2007, 07:18 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
If you think of it the other way around against setminers (who though raise preflop with a lot of pairs) and who will not play with you after the flop you should reraise more preflop with your premiumpairs and AK to cut down their odds (14-16 times BB) or mix in other hands. Against setminers who will not raise with a lot of pairs preflop I would take the same approach, either raise more if you have a transparent range or mix in other hands (which a lot of us generally do).
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#14
08-09-2007, 09:27 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
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I think against most non-tricky players you already playing for set value with JJ: AK can be made 16 ways, AA+KK+QQ 36 ways. If you add some random other hands to the AK I think you just don't make it to the 36 ways of AA-KK-QQ combined. So JJ is the turningpoint I would say to call with for real set value. [/ QUOTE ] AA+KK+QQ = 18 ways, correct?
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#15
08-09-2007, 09:36 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
Assuming 100BB stacks, we raise to 4BB and get reraised to 12BB. So it's 8BB more for us to potentially win another 88BB. Isn't this still marginally profitable to be set-mining with any pocket pair?
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#16
08-09-2007, 09:43 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming 100BB stacks, we raise to 4BB and get reraised to 12BB. So it's 8BB more for us to potentially win another 88BB. Isn't this still marginally profitable to be set-mining with any pocket pair? [/ QUOTE ] Not unless you are capable of getting away from set over set.
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#17
08-09-2007, 09:53 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Assuming 100BB stacks, we raise to 4BB and get reraised to 12BB. So it's 8BB more for us to potentially win another 88BB. Isn't this still marginally profitable to be set-mining with any pocket pair? [/ QUOTE ] Not unless you are capable of getting away from set over set. [/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't worry about that. If you score your set, the chance of villain scoring his is pretty low. He's effectively got 4 outs to hit it (it's an even smaller chance than usually assigned to '4 outs' cos there's more cards in the deck than we usually use for postflop calculations), so it's like of all the times you hit your set, he hits his 1 in 10 or so (probably less). The call if the amount is <=10% of the effective stack you can win covers this contingency, IMO. You cannot and shouldn't fold a set in this situation, whatever happens. EDIT: Actually you should never worry about hitting an underset. Worrying about rarities is worse than useless in poker. EDITEDIT: My maths isn't quite right here, because I didn't take into account he may hit on the turn or river. You also have the chance to quads on turn/river, but it's half as likely as him hitting his set. I think the point is still valid though.
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#18
08-09-2007, 09:55 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Assuming 100BB stacks, we raise to 4BB and get reraised to 12BB. So it's 8BB more for us to potentially win another 88BB. Isn't this still marginally profitable to be set-mining with any pocket pair? [/ QUOTE ] Not unless you are capable of getting away from set over set. [/ QUOTE ] Doesn't your reasoning make it even more important that you don't ever set-mine when facing a 4X BB open raise with a 100BB stack?
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#19
08-09-2007, 10:27 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Assuming 100BB stacks, we raise to 4BB and get reraised to 12BB. So it's 8BB more for us to potentially win another 88BB. Isn't this still marginally profitable to be set-mining with any pocket pair? [/ QUOTE ] Not unless you are capable of getting away from set over set. [/ QUOTE ] Set over set shouldn't be your biggest concern here (as others have said, if you flop your set and go broke then you played the hand well)... position should. My arguement for not calling oop with the smaller pocket pairs (up through 99+) is that its a lot tougher to stack a thinking opponenet when you're out of position. The 88BB left in your stack means you correct to call from an implied odds standpoint ONLY if you think villain will give you all of those chips when you hit. In position (if I raise 4BB from mp2 and get reraised to 12BB by the SB) I'll call with any pocket pair provided villain has another 80BB or so, simply because, on most flops, its so much easier to take his entire stack when you're in position.
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#20
08-09-2007, 10:32 AM
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Re: A little theory: you standard-raise from MP1. and...
CLB
Good stuff. The problem is most of the time, you're OOP in this situation unless it's the blinds that come alive. If it's an early limper that comes alive, you'll often raise to cover him, so it's at least 5xBB. If he then triples that to x15BB, you're shoving in x10BB to get x85BB. This is -EV, IMO. What you say is spot on though.
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