$16 A9s on bubble sngwiz says fold?

[SitNGo Wizard]

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it says if he's pushing 100% and bb is only over-calling TT+ AQs+, it's a fold and i should only be calling 77+, AJ+, ATs+, KQs.. the EV diff. is +.01%

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Well this can't be right unless you have the BB calling super wide if you fold. According to SNGPT, your equity if you don't get overcalled is 19.2% and 18.3% if you fold. So if you get overcalled 4% of the time (TT+,AK,AQs+) and lose all of your equity when it happens, you are still sitting at .192*.96 = 18.4% equity. A9s is going to win a decent % of the time when overcalled (about 25%) so what gives here?

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What makes this close is that when the hero folds the default calling range for the big blind is 20%. If big blind calls the button’s push any tighter than this then A9s becomes an easy call.

This is a call in SNGPT because it assumes that the button always picks up the blinds when hero folds. The Wizard accounts for the times big blind calls the button’s push after hero folds. People tend to forget about the fold analysis, but the opponent hand ranges are just as important.

[FuriousD]

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it says if he's pushing 100% and bb is only over-calling TT+ AQs+, it's a fold and i should only be calling 77+, AJ+, ATs+, KQs.. the EV diff. is +.01%

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Well this can't be right unless you have the BB calling super wide if you fold. According to SNGPT, your equity if you don't get overcalled is 19.2% and 18.3% if you fold. So if you get overcalled 4% of the time (TT+,AK,AQs+) and lose all of your equity when it happens, you are still sitting at .192*.96 = 18.4% equity. A9s is going to win a decent % of the time when overcalled (about 25%) so what gives here?

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What makes this close is that when the hero folds the default calling range for the big blind is 20%. If big blind calls the button’s push any tighter than this then A9s becomes an easy call.

This is a call in SNGPT because it assumes that the button always picks up the blinds when hero folds. The Wizard accounts for the times big blind calls the button’s push after hero folds. People tend to forget about the fold analysis, but the opponent hand ranges are just as important.

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Do you mean this is a FOLD in SNGPT? That's what I get when I have button pushing 100% and the minimum edge set to 0.

[SitNGo Wizard]

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Do you mean this is a FOLD in SNGPT? That's what I get when I have button pushing 100% and the minimum edge set to 0.

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I did not actually run it in SNGPT, but if I set big blind’s calling range to zero when hero pushes and when hero folds the results should be pretty close. In the Wizard under those conditions, A9s is an easy call. I do not have SNGPT on this computer so I cannot verify.

[Shillx]

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it says if he's pushing 100% and bb is only over-calling TT+ AQs+, it's a fold and i should only be calling 77+, AJ+, ATs+, KQs.. the EV diff. is +.01%

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Well this can't be right unless you have the BB calling super wide if you fold. According to SNGPT, your equity if you don't get overcalled is 19.2% and 18.3% if you fold. So if you get overcalled 4% of the time (TT+,AK,AQs+) and lose all of your equity when it happens, you are still sitting at .192*.96 = 18.4% equity. A9s is going to win a decent % of the time when overcalled (about 25%) so what gives here?

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What makes this close is that when the hero folds the default calling range for the big blind is 20%. If big blind calls the button’s push any tighter than this then A9s becomes an easy call.

This is a call in SNGPT because it assumes that the button always picks up the blinds when hero folds. The Wizard accounts for the times big blind calls the button’s push after hero folds. People tend to forget about the fold analysis, but the opponent hand ranges are just as important.

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Defaults to 20%...yuck. If the BB plays optimally it should be about 7.5%. So our fold equity is more like

.183*.925 + .273*.075*.298 + .175*.075*.702 = 18.5%

There is no way that you can fold this hand if you think that the button is on ATC. Your fold equity is going to be pretty close to SNGPT in situations like this. The time it kicks in is when you are in the CO or the button after the CO has folded. It should probably go the other way when someone has moved in (assuming winning the hand gives you the chip lead) since getting a dominating stack gives you a big advantage.

[agnoke10]

this is such an easy call

[SneakyFerret]

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this is such an easy call

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[darnold305]

Are you also SNg wizard on stars?

[SitNGo Wizard]

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Are you also SNg wizard on stars?

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If you're asking me, the answer is no.

[darnold305]

haha yeah... I was asking you... Thanks for the reply... sorry to hijack the thread