$16 A9s on bubble sngwiz says fold?

[chuckpalms04]

Hand is against known 2+2er who will obviously be pwning bubble here and i figure to be way ahead of his range but sngwiz says fold even if he's pushing as high as 70%? i don't get it maybe someone could explain so i don't feel so fishy.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t2850)
UTG (t2575)
Button (t5970)
Hero (t2105)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t5945</font>, Hero calls t1880 (All-In)

[freeucm]

you want to be the pusher with a9s not the caller.

[chuckpalms04]

bump, would like some better analysis plz - bubble play when i'm short is my weakest part so i'd really appreciate some help.

[agnoke10]

villian is pushing 100% here, or at least should be, what do the sngwiz numbers say about that? i feel like its a call, if he has been pwning the bubble you ARE NOT going to be able to get it in better than this

[kleath]

If he's good pretty sure its a call.

EDIT: Oops was thinking you were BB, I'd still be a little looser than ICM would dictate cause you're about to have 0 FE and you're behind the other 2 stacks, seems like a call but close. Oh and it looks like it really depends on how tight BB is calling, SNGWiz has you calling if he doesnt call looser than JJ+ AK, which is too tight I think but you're about to have no FE kinda offsets it, unless he's calling somewhat loose for the situation you should probably call.

[chuckpalms04]

it says if he's pushing 100% and bb is only over-calling TT+ AQs+, it's a fold and i should only be calling 77+, AJ+, ATs+, KQs.. the EV diff. is +.01%

[DeuceSeven]

sngpt says this is a clear call if he's pushing 70%.

[kleath]

[ QUOTE ]
it says if he's pushing 100% and bb is only over-calling TT+ AQs+, it's a fold and i should only be calling 77+, AJ+, ATs+, KQs.. the EV diff. is +.01%

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a situation where the ICM answer isn't necessarily the right one, if the other 2 are playing decent we only have one possible shove left that has any FE and they arent going out before us very often.

[chuckpalms04]

hm maybe there's something weird going on in sngwiz there

[kleath]

Does SNGPT take into account callers behind you? If it does I can't figure out how, seems like it can only deal with you closing the action.