A question for uNL

[Xanta]

6 out of 13 possible PP hands are way ahead of us right now, and 7 out of 13 are way behind us. I'd guess we have 60% equity or so here (someone can stove it if they want) but if we raise our equity against his calling/3betting range is almost certainly <20%. This is a simple WA/WB situation and we call and re-eval turn.

[gumpzilla]

Well, against that range this is a WA/WB situation. He's never drawing to more than 2 outs, and when we're behind we're drawing dead to runner runner against a set or 5ish outs when he's got an overpair (fewer for QQ). We're ahead of his range, though not by a ton, but raising here isn't going to serve any purpose, since the weaker pocket pairs are likely to fold and QQ+ isn't going to. So the flop action appears to be quite plainly a call.

I guess the question is what do you do on the turn. I don't think your average opponent is going to fire again with his weak holdings here that often, so I think I'd usually fold to a second barrel. If he checks, I check behind to induce a river bluff, usually. Occasionally I'll make a value bet if I think 88-TT will call, folding to a c/r. If that bet is c/c'ed, I'd flip between checking behind on the river or making another small value bet, since it seems unlikely with that range that we'd see that line with hands we're losing to.

[cubase]

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,77,22 - hand that are currently crushing us.
33,44,55,66,88,99,TT - hands we beat.

We are beating one more hand than we are losing too. Presumably (you didn't give us these reads) my opponent is going to shut down with 33,44,55,66,88,99,TT on the turn. Everything from here below is based on that assumption, so even if it is wrong, it should make for a neat discussion.

Wish we had more reads, but I have to assume he shuts down on the turn with all the hands that are not sets and are < J.

Now then, depending on his turn action, his hand hopefully is face-up to me. If he bets, he is winning, if he checks he is losing or misplaying his hand (not extracting value).

Ideally I'd have a read about if he fast plays his sets/overpairs for 2 streets.

I'm going to go with my assumptions for now. If he's fast playing the flop with his set/overpair I assume he shuts down with all the underpairs on the turn (he will check the turn).

So, if he fires again on the turn he has me beat, or now has me beat (he had an underpair that made a set).

If the turn is heart, however, and he fires, then I know he has a set/overpair, either on the flop or with the turn. Based on his betting size, I need to do the math to determine if I have the implied odds to hit my possibly 7-9 outer to stack his set/overpair. The average 50NLer isn't folding a set on a backdoor flush that comes in. If the pot-odd + implied odds are there, I can call and hope for a non-board pairing heart. If the board does pair, I have to proceed very cautiously and evaluate his river bet.

If he does not bet the turn, I can check behind on a non-heart turn and value bet the river and fold to strength on the river which would indicate he hit his set on the river.

If a heart comes on the turn, I need to go ahead and bet my pair/draw because if the heart hits on the river I could potentially lose action to TT/99 with my value bet unless he hits a set, which he will pay off a reasonable bet.

Finally, if he checks to me on the river, I can make a small value bet with my pair and hopefully > J calls me.

I've haven't address situations where he has an overpair and I hit two pair on the turn (and possibly a boat on the river), but I'll leave that for someone else, as I'm ready to go home from work now.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: Removed some of the useless text.

[ThaHero]

Given his range I think it's best to call flop and re-eval turn card.

[Triggerle]

In many 50NL games the real poker begins at the turn because people cbet anything and also call cbets with anything (i.e. the flop betting/calling does not help much with regard to hand reading). We can take a passive line and try to let villian define his hand by flat calling the flop and seeing if he bets again on the turn. Against weak/tight opponents this is usually best. There are, of course, a lot of aggrodonks at NL50 against which a flop raise would be better to define the hand. We really shouldn't be that readless but if we are I prefer the passive line and fold to further turn aggression.