After 2.200 stts I am looking for advice on my next move

[DevinLake]

sample size anoke. why wouldn't u move up if your are good enough, but due to variance your ROI is 10% instead of 20%?

After 1500 sngs someone's true ROI could be like 10%, but they actual results are 20%. While someone else could have a true ROI of 20%, but have an actual ROI of 10%. Deciding to move up based on ROI IMO, is dumb unless it's over a very big sample.

[alex-star]

I'd move up.

[Pg9]

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I'd move up.

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Me too. It's important not to lose the excitement...

[drzen]

I just wanted to say [censored] nice post sir.

[Shillx]

This isn't the best place for this but w/e.

So many of you have no clue how much varience there is in SNGs. I just did one run of 10 heads @ 10000 SNG's (m = .046) and the ROI's ranged from 2-9%. Might have been a savage trial, I dunno I only did one, but you can't tell [censored] from results. And the reality is that varience is even worse (in most cases) then these models predict. The sims typically use an s of about 1.5 (9-handed game) but in reality it is higher.

- Take a $10 SNG'er who decides to play a $100 SNG 1% of the time (s = 1.5 in any given game). His s is actually 1.94. What if he plays a $100 SNG 10% of the time? Now his s is 2.61

- Someone who plays equal numbers of $100/200/300 SNG's (s = 1.5) has a true s of 1.7

The sims paint a picture that has a crazy amount to begin with, but that is only the beginning. It is insane to think that people can come even remotely close to their actual ROI even over a sample of say 2000 games or more.

[PokerSpiv]

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So many of you have no clue how much varience there is in SNGs.

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In my experience the variance is pretty minimal, at least at low levels...



Pretty Linear really, over 5000+ sngs.

[JuntMonkey]

Rando McGee is awesome.