NL200...AQ facing flop aggression, top pair, nut flush draw!

[dalerobk]

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Im thinking I have to be behind here obv...Should I call or push?

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If you think you're behind, why would you even consider pushing? Really, think about that. Being behind means Villain has at least two pair or better and almost no one will fold two pair or better here. Probably he has aces up (maybe top two) or a set. He's not folding any of those hands which means you essentially have a FD. I'm not trying to be a smartass here, but if you haven't figured this out let me tell you: pushing flops with just a FD and zero fold equity is a sure fire way to lose money at poker. Based upon your read of being behind, the decision is whether or not to call or fold but pushing should be out of the question.

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Not necessarily. Im actually slightly ahead of hands im behind right now...A9 and K9...im only a dog against a set, and the only set he likely has here is 99, unless he cold called KK or AA, which he could of, but AA is highly unlikely given my ace and the ace on the board. I have odds to call for the turn, but I know, even if I make my hand, he is going to fold when another spade hits. So here is an opportunity to make a huge hand!! Obviously, if I knew he had 99, i would of just called. Not to mention that I crush AT and AJ though I doubt he had that.

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You are 51.5% against A9 and 51.8% against K9. But you're also only 31% against a set of nines, and 34.9% against AK. So when he does have A9 and K9 you're making a fairly marginal play (slighly +EV with the dead money), and with the other hands, you're making a very -EV play. Again, I think the key here is no fold equity. I think if you're going to make a neutral EV play by pushing, you might as well just call for relatively cheap (compared to shoving your whole stack in) and seeing what the turn brings.

Also, I would point out that when considering that you might be slightly ahead, you have to consider what amount of time he has a set here. Considering he c/r'ed two people on an AK9 board with a preflop raiser still in the action, I think his chances of having a set are at least 20% and probably more like 50-70%. Either way, even with a set only 20% of the time, pushing here is probably neutral EV as best.

[mce86]

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Im thinking I have to be behind here obv...Should I call or push?

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If you think you're behind, why would you even consider pushing? Really, think about that. Being behind means Villain has at least two pair or better and almost no one will fold two pair or better here. Probably he has aces up (maybe top two) or a set. He's not folding any of those hands which means you essentially have a FD. I'm not trying to be a smartass here, but if you haven't figured this out let me tell you: pushing flops with just a FD and zero fold equity is a sure fire way to lose money at poker. Based upon your read of being behind, the decision is whether or not to call or fold but pushing should be out of the question.

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Not necessarily. Im actually slightly ahead of hands im behind right now...A9 and K9...im only a dog against a set, and the only set he likely has here is 99, unless he cold called KK or AA, which he could of, but AA is highly unlikely given my ace and the ace on the board. I have odds to call for the turn, but I know, even if I make my hand, he is going to fold when another spade hits. So here is an opportunity to make a huge hand!! Obviously, if I knew he had 99, i would of just called. Not to mention that I crush AT and AJ though I doubt he had that.

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You are 51.5% against A9 and 51.8% against K9. But you're also only 31% against a set of nines, and 34.9% against AK. So when he does have A9 and K9 you're making a fairly marginal play (slighly +EV with the dead money), and with the other hands, you're making a very -EV play. Again, I think the key here is no fold equity. I think if you're going to make a neutral EV play by pushing, you might as well just call for relatively cheap (compared to shoving your whole stack in) and seeing what the turn brings.

Also, I would point out that when considering that you might be slightly ahead, you have to consider what amount of time he has a set here. Considering he c/r'ed two people on an AK9 board with a preflop raiser still in the action, I think his chances of having a set are at least 20% and probably more like 50-70%. Either way, even with a set only 20% of the time, pushing here is probably neutral EV as best.

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Obviously, although I won, I wasnt sure about the move, hence the post.....less sure now that I realize who it was against. I had a couple players acting after me who were raising reraising alot of pots (not him)..sometimes you get caught in the action, and I think I made my push just out of instinct of being pushed and having a solid hand.

[mce86]

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i hate your line. but as played this is a definite fold. you are obviously beat, and nobody is going to fold a set here.

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We're folding getting 3.4:1 on the nut flush draw? And don't we think A9/K9 are reasonably likely? Even flush draws are possible, especially with that small a raise. JT spades, for example.

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this is sooooooo wrong for a few reasons:

1. the initial flop better is likely to push so you are not getting 3:1

2. even if he just calls, someone is pushing turn so you are paying $38 to only see one card. you ned way better odds than 3:1.

3. if someone else has a flush draw, then you only have 7 outs left and need waaaaaaaaaaaaay better than 3:1 anyway.

4. you are calling because you think someone has 2 pair? 2 pair beats us!

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What I just found funny about this post of mine...is I have a 8 x 10 card behind my computer that says..."DONT CHASE THE FLUSH DRAW..IF THEY ARE RAISING BE CAREFUL"
What's better than chasing? PUSHING (might need a new card!)