NL200...AQ facing flop aggression, top pair, nut flush draw!

[BT2]

i hate your line. but as played this is a definite fold. you are obviously beat, and nobody is going to fold a set here.

[chicken10der]

DO NOT PUSH - this is full tilt, where somebody hits a set on every other A-hi flop. your hand is a draw and that's it.

odds of hitting spade on turn & river not pairing = 16%, just over 5:1. if you think you can get a call from a CRAI on a spade turn or just an AI on the river if he checks behind a spade turn and the river doesn't pair, go for a call. the river could come another spade and kill the action, but i really think most sets here can't resist a bet on the turn that would commit them to calling a CRAI.

[myheadhurts]

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i hate your line. but as played this is a definite fold. you are obviously beat, and nobody is going to fold a set here.

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We're folding getting 3.4:1 on the nut flush draw? And don't we think A9/K9 are reasonably likely? Even flush draws are possible, especially with that small a raise. JT spades, for example.

[Renton]

bet flop, shove to a raise

as played check raise

as played past the weak play of checking and calling, i have no idea what you do here, but my instinct is to fold.

[BT2]

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i hate your line. but as played this is a definite fold. you are obviously beat, and nobody is going to fold a set here.

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We're folding getting 3.4:1 on the nut flush draw? And don't we think A9/K9 are reasonably likely? Even flush draws are possible, especially with that small a raise. JT spades, for example.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is sooooooo wrong for a few reasons:

1. the initial flop better is likely to push so you are not getting 3:1

2. even if he just calls, someone is pushing turn so you are paying $38 to only see one card. you ned way better odds than 3:1.

3. if someone else has a flush draw, then you only have 7 outs left and need waaaaaaaaaaaaay better than 3:1 anyway.

4. you are calling because you think someone has 2 pair? 2 pair beats us!

[dalerobk]

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i hate your line. but as played this is a definite fold. you are obviously beat, and nobody is going to fold a set here.

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We're folding getting 3:1 on a the nut flush draw? And don't we think A9/K9 are reasonably likely? Even flush draws are possible, especially with that small a raise. JT spades, for example.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're getting 3:1 which is bad because we need 5:1 to make a call with the flush draw correct. I think a fold here is fine, but I don't hate a call either. It seems like Villain has a huge hand so we probably have good implied odds on the turn and river, especially since as the preflop raiser he probably won't put us on the flush.

I do think A9 is possible with K9 less so. But I also think AK is possible, which gives us less outs. I would say that a FD is much less likely. I don't think too many people c/r two people with just a draw, especially with a preflop raiser and an A and K on board, which likely hit someone.

[myheadhurts]

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this is sooooooo wrong for a few reasons:

1. the initial flop better is likely to push so you are not getting 3:1

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The cutoff has folded. Even if he COULD push, you are then 30% to win a three way way pot with plenty of dead money, and the call is profitable.

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2. even if he just calls, someone is pushing turn so you are paying $38 to only see one card. you ned way better odds than 3:1.


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I'm aware we're only getting one card. I'm suggesting we fold to a turn bet if we miss. If we hit, we only need a 1/2 PSB on either the turn or river to breakeven. So check raise all in on turn, or else bet 2/3rds pot on the river. Very few sets can fold to a flush given we checked the turn.

Obv fold if the river pairs.

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3. if someone else has a flush draw, then you only have 7 outs left and need waaaaaaaaaaaaay better than 3:1 anyway.

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Given there's only one bloke left, folding to a flush draw is a bit mad.

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4. you are calling because you think someone has 2 pair? 2 pair beats us!

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2 pair is better than a set because it's much less likely to boat. I'd call even if I knew for a fact he had 99 though.

And A9/K9 is behind us if he doesn't bet the turn.

[myheadhurts]

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We're getting 3:1 which is bad because we need 5:1 to make a call with the flush draw correct. I think a fold here is fine, but I don't hate a call either. It seems like Villain has a huge hand so we probably have good implied odds on the turn and river, especially since as the preflop raiser he probably won't put us on the flush.

I do think A9 is possible with K9 less so. But I also think AK is possible, which gives us less outs. I would say that a FD is much less likely. I don't think too many people c/r two people with just a draw, especially with a preflop raiser and an A and K on board, which likely hit someone.

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If he had JT spades then a raise is probably the best play (although he should raise more).

[mce86]

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Im thinking I have to be behind here obv...Should I call or push?

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If you think you're behind, why would you even consider pushing? Really, think about that. Being behind means Villain has at least two pair or better and almost no one will fold two pair or better here. Probably he has aces up (maybe top two) or a set. He's not folding any of those hands which means you essentially have a FD. I'm not trying to be a smartass here, but if you haven't figured this out let me tell you: pushing flops with just a FD and zero fold equity is a sure fire way to lose money at poker. Based upon your read of being behind, the decision is whether or not to call or fold but pushing should be out of the question.

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Not necessarily. Im actually slightly ahead of hands im behind right now...A9 and K9...im only a dog against a set, and the only set he likely has here is 99, unless he cold called KK or AA, which he could of, but AA is highly unlikely given my ace and the ace on the board. I have odds to call for the turn, but I know, even if I make my hand, he is going to fold when another spade hits. So here is an opportunity to make a huge hand!! Obviously, if I knew he had 99, i would of just called. Not to mention that I crush AT and AJ though I doubt he had that.

[myheadhurts]

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Not necessarily. Im actually slightly ahead of hands im behind right now...A9 and K9...im only a dog against a set, and the only set he likely has here is 99,

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You're a dog to AK as well - in fact you're more of a dog to AK than 99. In my opinion, A9, AK and 99 is the bulk of his range here, with AA, KK and, K9 all much less likely.