|
|
#21
07-16-2007, 10:13 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
This isn't just a weaker draw; this is a really weak draw. There's a really good chance that one of the other two has a FD, if not better, so 2 outs are gone. Also, I wouldn't count a 4 as an out at all, since you won't get paid off if it hits. Counting the overs as outs seems a bit tenous at best in this spot. That leaves you with 3 outs--the 3 nines that don't make the flush. I guess you can call here with position, but I'd just fold it. Calling here is probably neutral EV at best. You can try to work out all the formulas you want, but the reality is that you're just not going to make any money long term on a call here. This is exactly the kind of spot where unskilled players get stuck putting money in the pot with the worst hand and then get no money out of it when they're actually ahead. That's the way you lose money at poker. Good players put money in when they're ahead, not when they're behind in really marginal spots.
|
|
#22
07-16-2007, 10:20 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
dalerobk,
Your opinion lost all credibility after you said [ QUOTE ] Also, I wouldn't count a 4 as an out at all, since you won't get paid off if it hits. [/ QUOTE ] So just because you don't think you get paid off often when it hits means you can't count it as an out? LOL
|
|
#23
07-16-2007, 10:21 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
[ QUOTE ]
threads, You're aware we're open ended here right? [/ QUOTE ] Nope, I was it as a pair + GS. You should have know when I was talking about trip outs! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
|
|
#24
07-16-2007, 10:24 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
[ QUOTE ]
dalerobk, Your opinion lost all credibility after you said [ QUOTE ] Also, I wouldn't count a 4 as an out at all, since you won't get paid off if it hits. [/ QUOTE ] So just because you don't think you get paid off often when it hits means you can't count it as an out? LOL [/ QUOTE ] You're kind of a jackass, arent' you? If you reread my post, the whole point was that this is at best neutral EV. Yes, the 4 is an out, but so what if that out means a neutral EV situation. That's like calling a flop bet because you are counting your one overcard as an out. Is that how you count outs? I count outs as cards that are actually +EV. So my point is that you only have 3 outs that are likely to be +EV.
|
|
#25
07-16-2007, 10:25 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
Yeah, I think we covered the 4 stuff at the outset. I had mentioned runner runner trips, maybe that set you off on the wrong course.
Anyhow, the more I look at the detail of this, the more I think, "where is the money coming from on this hand?" Come on Klompy, how exactly are we going to make our profit here? You understand that it's not good enough from an analysis point of view just to say, "well, I just think we will"
|
|
#26
07-16-2007, 10:25 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] threads, You're aware we're open ended here right? [/ QUOTE ] Nope, I was it as a pair + GS. You should have know when I was talking about trip outs! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] What would you actually estimate we can count for outs now that you've read the hand correctly? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I thought I was being fairly generous to the pro-fold crowd by saying 7 tbh.
|
|
#27
07-16-2007, 10:29 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
Come on guys, play nicely. I thought 7 was a fair compromise to all arguments. I also thought Klompy was quite right to treat the 4 as a neutral issue.
But, I'm still far from convinced we can turn a profit on this hand.
|
|
#29
07-16-2007, 12:00 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
Sorry, I'm not trying to take over your thread, but something important hasn't been brought up yet. We're seeing both the turn and the river here a lot, giving us a much better chance of hitting our draw. And the times where we're not seeing both the turn and river it's because someone's betting the turn for us and thus we're getting paid off enough to make this call +ev.
I guess what I'm saying is that 2 things can happen here. 1. We call flop, and on the turn one of the other people bet ~4$ which means we're already making up for our call on the flop. 2. Turn checks through, which means we had the correct odds to call a flop bet profitably without the overlay of implied odds. If we don't get raised off our hand on the flop, these two situations are the only 2 options and they're both +ev before even factoring in the times we get an entire stack. edit: I've been awake a very very long time, so I'm sorry if I didn't describe this clearly, or if I'm way off here.
|
|
#30
07-16-2007, 12:13 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] threads, You're aware we're open ended here right? [/ QUOTE ] Nope, I was it as a pair + GS. You should have know when I was talking about trip outs! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] What would you actually estimate we can count for outs now that you've read the hand correctly? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I thought I was being fairly generous to the pro-fold crowd by saying 7 tbh. [/ QUOTE ] 7 is cool now that I have learned to read. I have been doing that a lot lately...
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
