NL25: Playing weaker draws 8 -10 outs

[Specialwon]

I'm pretty clear about playing strong draws with 12 clean outs or more, these I usually play fast and aggressive as if I had a made hand.

I'm wondering if there's some good way of playing weaker draws, ie plain flush or oesd with weak overcards or no overcard at all, so as to show a profit. Here's an example from today which is a fairly typical meh flop for a mid-value suited connector where although I have overcards, I don't put much faith in them:

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.15/$0.25
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $25.00
UTG+1: $43.15
UTG+2: $18.00
Hero: $27.20
MP2: $13.00
MP3: $28.30
CO: $21.20
Button: $23.35
SB: $24.75
BB: $30.45

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($1.5, 6 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $1.25</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero ?


NLHTAP has a good section on strong draws but isn't much help with these hands.

On the above hand, what difference if any would it make if there were one heart showing on the flop (for which I would normally add 1.5 outs).

Thanks

[Klompy]

I'm drawing here always unless I really think the hand will be raised after I call. I don't really like raising though as there's players still to act who can pad the pot if they call, and being RRed would be terrible. We're calling getting 4.2-1, and we have a lot of money behind us relative to the bet size meaning we have a fair amount of implied odds. If there was a heart on the flop above, I'm happier, but this is already a fairly good situation so it doesn't really change anything.

The fact that hitting the 4 completes a 4 straight is interesting, as when we hit it everyone often check folds to our bet. It also means that when they don't fold, we often stack someone when they have a lower straight though, which sorta evens it out.

[Specialwon]

OK, reasonable logic. However, at least 2 (or 4 if you count the overcards) of our outs are clubs and therefore dirty. Looks like at least one other player is on a draw, so there is an excellent chance we could get stacked if either of those hit.

So, I count only 6 clean outs for the straight, I would say 2 more outs for the overcards (to account for the fact that two are clubs and they are not very "over" overcards).

So, on that basis I would say the true drawing odds are closer to 5:1.

Good reasoning? Bad?

[Klompy]

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OK, reasonable logic. However, at least 2 (or 4 if you count the overcards) of our outs are clubs and therefore dirty. Looks like at least one other player is on a draw, so there is an excellent chance we could get stacked if either of those hit.

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I'm not stacking off if the flush hits.

[Specialwon]

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OK, reasonable logic. However, at least 2 (or 4 if you count the overcards) of our outs are clubs and therefore dirty. Looks like at least one other player is on a draw, so there is an excellent chance we could get stacked if either of those hit.

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I'm not stacking off if the flush hits.

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No, but you take my point that we are short of clean outs here, as is so often the case with these nearly-boards.

[Specialwon]

I should also have asked the question, do you call the flop bet if you are UTG?

I suppose what I'm driving at is some reasonable way to put my finger on a value for our implied odds. I agree with you that there are implied odds, but what figure do you assign?

This is really where I have a problem, because I don't really know how to estimate implied odds with any degree of confidence.

[Klompy]

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This is really where I have a problem, because I don't really know how to estimate implied odds with any degree of confidence.

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We're calling a 1.25$ bet, assuming 7 outs we are a 5.71-1 draw, meaning that we need to win 7.14 on average while calling this flop bet, if we call the flop the pot will be 5.25, which means that to make our call +ev we will have to extract 1.89 more on average to break even. This should be SUPER easy, making this call a nobrainer unless we want to argue the merits of raising here.

[Specialwon]

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This is really where I have a problem, because I don't really know how to estimate implied odds with any degree of confidence.

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We're calling a 1.25$ bet, assuming 7 outs we are a 5.71-1 draw, meaning that we need to win 7.14 on average while calling this flop bet, if we call the flop the pot will be 5.25, which means that to make our call +ev we will have to extract 1.89 more on average to break even. This should be SUPER easy, making this call a nobrainer unless we want to argue the merits of raising here.

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My question wasn't really what do we need to extract in order to make a +ev call, but how to estimate what we actually will extract. I'm not doubting you're correct, but I'm just not sure how you got to the point where you safely conclude that we will make more than the extra 1.89 needed to break even.

Sorry, I don't mean to be thick, I just need to see it reasoned out I think.

[LearningCurve]

I'll be the first to admit that I still know too little -- next to nothing I'll tell you some days in fact! However, I've basically quit drawing for a straights on 2 suited flops where I hold not even one to the suit. Just doesn't seem to be worth it imo. If the third to the flush hits then I'm beaten more times than not. Having said that, I have no numbers to prove or disprove my position...

[Specialwon]

Well, I'll have a stab at it myself. I'm starting with the assumption that we have 7 clean outs to the nuts, either by making the straight or by making runner runner trips or something like that. The more I think about it, the less I think the overcards are worth because they interfere with our straight draw.

Also, we may get reraised behind, as Klompy rightly says. What do we do then? If it's a minraise and everyone calls, the pot odds will be even more in favour of a call, but we will start to wish we never saw this hand.

So, I'm going to assume that, say, 20% of the time, we are reraised and this leads to a -ev conclusion one way or the other.

So, allowing for the reraise, I estimate our drawing odds at just over 7.1:1, in which case we need to make a further $4.88 on or after the turn. I would say that at least 30% of the time we lead out on the turn, everyone will fold. So, when we hit, we have to make more like $6.50 or more to break even.

This is possibly a bit pessimistic because the guy behind could just call, which would be great for us and would add to the possibility of a call to our victory bet. Say, knock 20% off to allow for that?

So, my analysis would suggest that we need to make quite a bit more than Klompy suggested, which leads naturally to thinking about fold equity and a raise or a shove.......