NL200: Backdoor in to 2 pair in blind battle vs 2+2er

[Bianculli]

I agree that this is a worse two pair almost all of the time. If beat, I would expect to see a straight, not AK. If villain would bet a set 100% of the time on the turn, I don't see how he would play AK like this. He just calls with tptk why? To trap? Why trap with tptk if he is too scared to trap with a set? Or he played so slowly because he is worried about committing a lot of chips with one pair? Then why raise the river when there now are a whole host of hands that beat your unimproved one pair that you let get there cheaply?

I was not disagreeing with OP's read that villain would not check the set, but I just feel like this read also equally excludes AK.

I agree with a push as opposed to a smaller (but still large) raise. He most likely folds or calls to either rather than splits his decision.

[Mr_Donktastic]

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I don't see how he would play AK like this. He just calls with tptk why? To trap? Why trap with tptk if he is too scared to trap with a set? Or he played so slowly because he is worried about committing a lot of chips with one pair?

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He would play AK that way mostly for pot control, partly to induce a bluff. If he had a set he wouldn't be worried about pot control, and would be more interested in building a big pot.

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Then why raise the river when there now are a whole host of hands that beat your unimproved one pair that you let get there cheaply?

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Huh? If he had AK he improved to top 2 on the rvr...I don't follow.

[Mr_Donktastic]

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if you think that 50% of the time THAT YOU RAISE he will call you with a worse hand then its neutral

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I may be misunderstanding what you are trying to say but as I read it this can't be right.

[D.L.M.]

i was trying to communicate (poorly) something you already know. forget all the folds he makes, just think about the times you shove and he calls. does he call with a worse hand more than half the time? Im not sure he will, but its close.

[GrandMelon]

Wouldnt villain 3 bet AK preflop here?

[Mr_Donktastic]

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Wouldnt villain 3 bet AK preflop here?

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Sometimes, which is another reason I am discounting AK by the river. It is in his range but between all of the actions it is MUCH less likely than A4, A6, A8.

[Bianculli]

Okay, I must be high or something. River raise is consistent with ak two pair (which he has rather than one pair), regardless of how it got there.

Reading the post correctly, I agree that AK is possible, but as others stated, a lower probability than the other two pairs.

Sorry for the confusion.

[CalledDownLight]

Imo the only hand he could have here that is ahead of us is 57. I don't agree that he'd bet the turn with that most of the time as he usually has you drawing dead and knows you often check for pot contol, but may fire the river.

[Mr_Donktastic]

I'm surprised that no mentioned why I bet $30 in the first hand and $20 in the second.

Edit: IDK why either but its a leak - I should have bet $30 both times.