NL200: Backdoor in to 2 pair in blind battle vs 2+2er

[moldman]

I personally like a raise here as opposed to a push, as tempting as it is. The biggest question to answer is what hands would call a push that you beat. I think hands that call a push have you beat, but you can likely get value from AdXd type hands that hit a pair on the river by just raising to ~100 (with the intent of calling a push, although you'd likely vomit first).

His line here just doesn't look too strong when he checks behind on the turn with a flush and straight draw there, unless he already had the straight and is just hoping to coax you into a river bet. That's why I don't see as much value in a push as I do a smallish raise. I think a smallish raise gets looked up by a AQ/AJ enough (mainly with your image) to make it a good play.

[Mr_Donktastic]

My read is that he would bet the turn with a set or straight vs me 100% of the time.

So when he raises the river I was pretty confident that he should really only have A4, A6, A8, AK, or air.

I guess it comes down to do you think it is reasonable for villain to call the push with A4, A6, or A8? What would you do with those hands in his spot?

If he calls with A4 and A6 even sometimes that is obv great. If he folds A8 that is awesome. If he has AK I am screwed.

All together that seems like +ev right?

[Bianculli]

[ QUOTE ]
My read is that he would bet the turn with a set or straight vs me 100% of the time.

So when he raises the river I was pretty confident that he should really only have A4, A6, A8, AK, or air.

I guess it comes down to do you think it is reasonable for villain to call the push with A4, A6, or A8? What would you do with those hands in his spot?

If he calls with A4 and A6 even sometimes that is obv great. If he folds A8 that is awesome. If he has AK I am screwed.

All together that seems like +ev right?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a complicated read that you are selling. So, he would bet a set or a straight on the turn 100% of the time, but you think he would play AK as just call the preflop raise, just call the flop bet, check the turn?

[Mr_Donktastic]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a complicated read that you are selling. So, he would bet a set or a straight on the turn 100% of the time, but you think he would play AK as just call the preflop raise, just call the flop bet, check the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

He would play AK like that sometimes but not all the time.

I am pretty confident in the other read though. 100% is a stretch obv but it is up there.

[TheProdigy]

*Grunch somewhat*

Guys, he never has a set here. He is a regular. He is not slowplaying a set for two streets on a drawy board with two to a flush on it as well.

This is a lower two pair IMO 80% of the time, AK, 10% of the time(probably even less but without reads I don't know if the regular is aggro or a puss) with some surprise hands thrown in there like straights he hit etc, which are simply coolers. I value-town it and push and hope he thinks you are overbet shove bluffing lol.

[moldman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a complicated read that you are selling. So, he would bet a set or a straight on the turn 100% of the time, but you think he would play AK as just call the preflop raise, just call the flop bet, check the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am pretty confident in the other read though. 100% is a stretch obv but it is up there.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree with the read against most regs. Like you, I'd probably say I'm ahead 85-90% here. The question is, will he call a push with a weaker holding, whereas he's almost sure to call a smaller raise. If you raise to 100-110, I'd be shocked if he folded, unless his raise was a complete bluff. So, you're not getting his whole stack, but still getting a little over half of it. At this point though, its just a math question as to which is more profitable over the long haul.

[Mr_Donktastic]

You may be right.

Its funny that I didn't even consider raising less, just put him on a weaker 2 pr and instapushed.

I always think against competent opponents that the smallish raise would look stronger than a push.

[TheProdigy]

Yea,

The probability of him calling a smaller two pair is dependent on the player really

(30%)($138) = 41.4
(50%)($50) = 25

On the river raise it's all according to how often he calls, but if you were to listen to David Sklansky he says push all the time :P

P.S. didn't look over anything or particularly remember if the ev calcs are right, just now starting to read the math of poker so give me a break and ignore any wrong numbers

[moldman]

Definitely player dependent, and sometimes the push looks weaker than a smaller raise. I mix it up myself, but figured I'd at least bring it up as an option. And even if you do the smallish raise and he folds, you've just opened up another play against said villain if you can bluff/raise river cheaply.

[D.L.M.]

I think given the pot size on the river calling is best. you are risking to much, if you think that 50% of the time THAT YOU RAISE he will call you with a worse hand then its neutral. Im not sure how many two pairs hell lay down but your line is reflecting lots of strength (set or better). I doubt he thinks you are bluffing when you shove.