25NL - AA with big draws vs. passive player

[ALPHA TRI]

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You only have one pair here and the flop was not too good for you, though you did have many draws. I think flop and turn are both good, but once you are left with one pair, I either c/call or c/fold. Vs this guy, I probably c/fold.

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Thanks so much. But can we learn anything about his calls on flop and turn? Does this represent strength from this type of player or do we only know that he has a big hand when he RAISES? Basically, does this type of player call down STRONG or WEAK? Thanks guys.

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Here's my thoughts:

You know two things; that he is tight and that he is passive.

Tightness deals with the type of hands he has. He is not calling pf and on the flop with Q7o or 33 like a loose passive might. He calls on this very scary flop. You have the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so he doesn't have the naked A draw. He could have a made flush, AQ, Q9 maybe, the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and another pair for pair + FD, AA, KK, QQ, JJ. or a broadway 2pair or pair+draw hand. This is why the flop sucks for you, it hits his tight range so hard. Good thing you have outs!

Unfortunately, you semibluff your hand on the flop and turn and are called after you miss. Since he is passive; he just calls instead of say, semibluff raising you on the turn with a pair+draw or a baby flush. He will just call and see what cards come.

Now on the river, you have one pair and villain still has the same range as before, but this time he isn't afraid of a 4th [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] coming b/c all the cards are out. So his baby flush is good and his straight or 2p or set isn't as afraid now.

Now you should c/call or c/fold for the reasons I gave in my first post.

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The above pretty much hits the nail on the head. Hands like this are always read dependant and where stats like CCPF/SD%/SD$/C-CBET are gold dust. UB is full of weak/tight weak/passive players who will call down with the nuts then pop riv.

[yntm3]

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Now you should c/call or c/fold for the reasons I gave in my first post.

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And I am also guessing the excellent thing about check/folding the river is that the check will almost never provoke a bluff from this type of player. Am I correct in saying that? We know that when he bets after we check he is almost always going to have us beat. Makes it an easier decision I guess if I think of it like this and can save me some money rather then pot committing myself by firing a bet on the river.

Thanks everyone, very insightful.

[Jamougha]

What the [censored] why are you bluffing with AA.

[yntm3]

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UB is full of weak/tight weak/passive players who will call down with the nuts then pop riv.

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Yes I have found this is the case and have been struggling to adjust because sometimes when you play so TAG you get frustrated when you come across weird situations like this and find it hard to lay down hands that you have been waiting so long for.

[Daniel LeClaire]

I would check the turn against this opponent. You have a lot of outs and getting raised here sucks. Villain isn't the type that is going to steal if you check. If he bets he probably has a hand. If he checks turn I would bet the river. If he bets the turn I would c/c a reasonable river bet.

As played, I don't think you are ever good here on the river. Guys just don't bluff the river that much, especially guys with these stats.

[Brit_Abroad]

I am either betting bigger on the turn, or checking - probably checking and callig a bet. You have a tight opponent, who has just called on a dangerous flop - remember from where he is sitting this is a flop that may have hit you big, so his call will set off alarm bells. Once he calls, I don't want to play a big pot here (unless the 4th club falls of course!)

As played, I think the river bet is spew. What is he calling/raising with that you beat? He is going to show you a flopped flush/straight/set/2 pair far more than he shows you a pair. I will always check here and then take reads and bet size into account before deciding whether to call or not. But I will usually fold this river, and always to a passive player.