|
|
#22
07-05-2007, 05:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: $60: AKs early
How is this a huge draw? 9 diamonds & 3 other Qs is 12 outs. You're 3-1 against making your hand, and all your chips are in the pot. Even if the other 3 aces and kings (6 more outs) are wins, you're still almost 2-1 against.
You're opponent has to love it when he can get it all in and be a 2-1 or better favorite. 
|
|
#23
07-05-2007, 05:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $60: AKs early
[ QUOTE ]
How is this a huge draw? 9 diamonds & 3 other Qs is 12 outs. You're 3-1 against making your hand, and all your chips are in the pot. Even if the other 3 aces and kings (6 more outs) are wins, you're still almost 2-1 against. You're opponent has to love it when he can get it all in and be a 2-1 or better favorite. [/ QUOTE ] Sometimes your opponent has nothing, and very often they will fold hands that connected with this board. Assuming that they will call with every single hand that hit is incorrect, thats the point of FE. You also have a ton of outs with a decent pot making it great to get your chips in. I'm also liking a lead here when I think about it more, its gonna be pretty rare that they connected hard with this board, and you have a ton of outs against most hands that may decide to stay in.
|
|
#24
07-05-2007, 05:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $60: AKs early
The more I think about this hand the more I like how you played it. This board is connected that people won't checkraise fold this flop and most hands people check raise this flop with are strong enough your overcard outs are useless.
|
|
#25
07-05-2007, 05:42 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $60: AKs early
How is it "hard" that he connected with this coordinated board? He bet into the 10 on the turn. If he has nothing, he's REALLY being tricky and has HUGE stones. If he was going to bluff or semi-bluff, this would look a lot safer on the flop rather than the turn.
|
|
#27
07-06-2007, 10:16 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $60: AKs early
I'd be tempted to shove the turn. Anyone have any thoughts on that?
|
|
#28
07-06-2007, 11:04 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $60: AKs early
[ QUOTE ]
I'd be tempted to shove the turn. Anyone have any thoughts on that? [/ QUOTE ] His large bet on the turn seems like he's calling a shove which I don't want with only one card to come.
|
|
#29
07-06-2007, 11:43 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $60: AKs early
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd be tempted to shove the turn. Anyone have any thoughts on that? [/ QUOTE ] His large bet on the turn seems like he's calling a shove which I don't want with only one card to come. [/ QUOTE ] I was thinking he could be betting all kinds of two pairs or sets and would fold a fair amount of the time to a shove. But yeah, if you had a read that he's not folding, then you can't push.
|
|
#30
07-06-2007, 11:56 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $60: AKs early
Fair enough. Not sure the "air" option is too likely, but let's go with it. If he has AQ or KQ, you're in bad shape with one card to come. If he has air, a raise gets him to fold A9 or AT where his air has you beat.
You have 11 outs if he has a Q. You odds are a little worse than 3-1 against. If you shove on the turn, he won't fold AQ or KQ, and your pot odds are a little better than 1.5-1 in your favor. If he has anything else and folds, you win 1,030. If you play this hand 4 times, you expect to lose 1,730. You need him to fold 1.8 hands in addition to the 4 hands you're behind to have a positive EV. He must be bluffing 31% of the time for shove to be right. Actually, this makes shoving look better than I first thought. It's still not this good because the chips you lose are worth more than the chips you win in a tournament. If you're playing against Jamie Gold or another known bluff artist, you probably need to shove. Still, you have plenty of play left when you choose to fold.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
