200 - calling 40BB pushes

[BigPoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
actually i called expecting to be a (small) favourite 90% of the time. While contemplating the call i remembered a hand discussed here 3 weeks ago about calling a push 100BB deep with J9s.
but i agree, this call is probably a little bit too much on the 'gogogo' side.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think that most of his range is PP under 10? (and against those you've got only like a 2% edge). Meanwhile, you're getting crushed by pairs TT+ or two Overs, which I'd guess was most of his range.

I would hate this much, much less if you were the one 4-bet shoving, because then you'd have some fold equity to go with your outs.

[DefiNe]

This is the loosest range you could possibly assign the short-stacker imo

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.662% 39.93% 01.73% 224945610 9753844.50 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 58.338% 56.61% 01.73% 318894717 9753844.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

we are no way getting the right price here.

edit - having said all this I'll take 0ev spots in order to clear a table-spot of a shortstack.

[wrkingtobegreat]

pretty awful. 10js is 57% equity against a RANDOM hand on pokerstove, and is a dog to any ace. BADD

[DefiNe]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty awful. 10js is 57% equity against a RANDOM hand on pokerstove, and is a dog to any ace. BADD

[/ QUOTE ]

that in itself is irrelevant, if we're getting 10:1 and can see we're against AA it's a +++EV call

[74o_Clownsuit]

How is this good lol.

And gogo delta k: lolterp... classic. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jaconda78]

Ok, boys and girls, math time: you need to call $68.05 into a pot of $93.05, giving you 1.36:1 odds. This means that for the call to be profitable you need to win 42.241% of the time. Keep in mind, I'm doing this in the morning before class, so please forgive me if my math is wrong. That said, let's look at some ranges:

if we put villain on 88+ and AJ+ (which I think is not unreasonable) then you're about 35% to win and can't make the call.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

136,984,320 games 0.031 secs 4,418,849,032 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.718% 34.34% 00.38% 47043850 514467.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 65.282% 64.91% 00.38% 88911536 514467.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }
If we put him on any pair+any broadway (a range that I think is far too optimistic, by the way) we are about 38% to win and STILL can't make the call:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

344,173,104 games 0.005 secs 68,834,620,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.939% 35.25% 02.69% 121332619 9242797.50 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 62.061% 59.38% 02.69% 204354890 9242797.50 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


---

136,984,320 games 0.031 secs 4,418,849,032 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.718% 34.34% 00.38% 47043850 514467.00 { JsTs }
Hand 1: 65.282% 64.91% 00.38% 88911536 514467.00 { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }


---

So looking at this, where's the range that allows us to call him profitably? There is no way that you're going to be a favorite most of the time - the only hands TJs is a favorite over are hands that don't contain a card higher than a jack. So I stand with the people that say that this is an incredibly spewy call.

[wrkingtobegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pretty awful. 10js is 57% equity against a RANDOM hand on pokerstove, and is a dog to any ace. BADD

[/ QUOTE ]

that in itself is irrelevant, if we're getting 10:1 and can see we're against AA it's a +++EV call

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm when are we getting 10-1 odds to call an all-in? Oh yeah, never.