set vs. flush that hit on river... possible to lay it down?18k gtd

[Jack-in-a-box]

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don’t remember exact stats on villain but I had seen him chase before. I remember he had played about 50% of his hands.

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Push the turn obviously

[The_Bao]

after all the replies (thanks alot everyone btw), there are still 2 questions i have:

1. my original question was, is it possible to lay this down on the river given the situation / odds i'm being offered?

and
2. should i really be overshoving 2k into a 1k pot on the turn?

[EGO]

-deleted because I can't do basic math - will repost.

[EGO]

Had the stacks wrong in that last post.

On the turn:

Effective Stack Size: t1950
Pot: t1155

Assume villian is on a flush draw, which will come in 19.5% of the time. I am assuming that in most cases you'll be planning on getting your entire stack into the pot either on or before the river.

As it stands, an 800 bet is big enough, but a bigger bet will probably be better, particularly if he won't fold for a slightly bigger bet.

.195(3105)-.805(800) = -38.525

For a pot-sized bet when he doesn't fold:

(.195 * 3105) - (.805 * 1155) = -324.3

Edit: FWIW, a bet of 752 is breakeven if you plan to shove the river (get all your chips in), so everything you bet above this amount is +EV for you when he calls. You just have to balance how often he'll call with how much you bet.

I don't think you can fold, since he could have two pair here some of the time.

Against most loose online opponents, I think just pushing the turn is OK, since they often won't lay down a good draw for any price. It all depends on you think they will call down with.

[Larude]

Two pair possibility of QJ is almost zero, you have 1 queen and besides that this hand could more than probably raised the flop or turn, AQ and KQ are not calling down that whole way. AJ is a more realistic possibility but wouldn't that hand raise the flop to see where it stands or fold the turn against so much action and very bad odds? Moreover wouldn't that hand check the river? Of course you are getting odds which could be worth it to call (there are many possibilities villain could hold - although many very unlikely), but your tournament life is also at stake. I really wouldn't blame someone for making the call, but I would have laid that down, especially with the read that villain loves to chase.

[raju]

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and what do yo mean by my flop bet says i probably don't have the flush DRAW or will fold if a heart hits?

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The flop bet obv denies villian the odds he needs for a FD/str8 draw but if he has any kind of hand (2 pair,AJ, OESD) he could well see those remaining hearts as good cards for him to bluff at. If you shove the turn he cant do that. Its kind of standard denying the odds like that and MOST of the time it means the bettor doesnt want to see anymore hearts which is why its a good spot for a bluff

I understand what your saying about wanting him in the hand at the wrong price etc. But i`d rather take the money now on the turn. Its early, the pot is big relative to the blinds and the shove is designed to end it not get a call.

If he does call, then everything Ego said,
Theres only T9 that bothers you on the turn and you still got outs.

IMO shoving turn is better than shoving or calling the river

As played i dont think you can fold. you`re beat as often as you`ve won here i think.

[Dunkman]

This can be a set, AJ, hell even A6 if he's really bad (or just be bluffing the scare card.) Also, I think shoving the turn is pretty awful. Your bet on the turn isn't giving him anything close to odds to draw to a flush (remember, 8h and Jh are not outs...he's worse than 5:1 to make it and is getting a price of less than 4:1 to call the turn bet assuming you stack off on the river if he makes his flush.) Why is shoving preferable then? I'm sorry, but you don't want to make him fold the flush draw, you want him to pay way too much to draw to it. Aside from that, there's also hands that are drawing dead at this point that would call a turn bet but not a shove, so I think it's pretty clearly a bad play here. This hand was played well, as long as you called the river.

edit: answering questions from OP...1) no, you can't fold on the river. You're probably going to lose most of the time, but the chances of slowplayed set/2 pair/misguided bluff/other stupid crap is more than enough to cover the enormous odds you have. 2) Shoving the turn is really bad.

one more edit: obviously shoving the turn is good if he will call with all these hands, but I would think even the worst villain would fold a flush draw to a 2x pot overbet on the turn.

[The_Bao]

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one more edit: obviously shoving the turn is good if he will call with all these hands, but I would think even the worst villain would fold a flush draw to a 2x pot overbet on the turn.

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my thoughts exactly. love the discussion, very helpful.

BUMP

[Simo_8ball]

Shoving the turn is bad. He will usually fold a flush draw, and he will also fold many, many hands that are drawing either completely dead or to 4 outs.

The only value you gain is from a flush draw that calls, which is likely to be rare, and you lose value when he folds the draw or a weaker hand like JT/KQ/etc.

[NeedATimeMachine]

did you check the river for a free showdown and/or to induce a bluff?