set vs. flush that hit on river... possible to lay it down?18k gtd

[The_Bao]

hand from the 27.50 18k GTD on stars.

don’t remember exact stats on villain but I had seen him chase before. I remember he had played about 50% of his hands. can I fold this after investing so many chips?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button (t3965)</font>
SB (t4265)
BB (t3295)
UTG (t5215)
UTG+1 (t3055)
MP1 (t4220)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t2445)</font>
MP3 (t1355)
CO (t4845)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t120, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls t90.

Flop: (t405) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t375</font>, Button calls t375, UTG folds.

Turn: (t1155) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t800</font>, Button calls t800.

River: (t2755) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t2670 (All-In)</font>, Hero wonders wtf to do???

[Dunkman]

no way I fold...you're getting over 3.5:1

[hamnegger]

calllllllllllll

[raju]

If you suspect he`ll chase for any price the 800 turn bet is no good.
with 2 hearts on the flop you`ve gotta shove that turn.

Have you seen him bluff at all? Because your flop bet says you prolly dont have the flush and will fold if a heart hits.
It also tells villian that his none flush hand is prolly good if its 2 pair or smaller set. Or, worse for you, KT for a staight.
As played im gonna call and kick my self for not shoving the turn

[The_Bao]

[ QUOTE ]
If you suspect he`ll chase for any price the 800 turn bet is no good.
with 2 hearts on the flop you`ve gotta shove that turn.

Have you seen him bluff at all? Because your flop bet says you prolly dont have the flush and will fold if a heart hits.
It also tells villian that his none flush hand is prolly good if its 2 pair or smaller set. Or, worse for you, KT for a staight.
As played im gonna call and kick my self for not shoving the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't know if he'd chase for any price. surely if i knew he would, i would shove that turn all day, as that would give him the worst odds to call for his flush (even if he hit it it would be ok, as i would be making the correct play in charging for his draw and he would be making the incorrect play by paying the wrong odds for it). but of course, i don't KNOW he'll chase for any price. i want to encourage action, and i WANT him to have a flush draw here. however, i want to do the most +ev play, that is, make a bet that will give him incorrect odds to call for his flush. if he hits it, so be it. but in the long run, this is +ev for me. against your average opponent, overshoving 2k into a 1k pot when all they have is a FD won't often get called.

and what do yo mean by my flop bet says i probably don't have the flush or will fold if a heart hits? no one has a flush on the flop... and how does it say that villain's non flush hand is probably good?

[Larude]

If he has been chasing this before surely there is a case to be considered for folding. I think the odds you offered him are fair enough, if you can let hem pay for more that is ofcourse always better. Please dont shove the turn, that is bad advice, like you say you want him to stick around with bad odds. Then if the flush falls thats poker, you did nothing wrong.

If villain is bluffing I cant imagine see him callbluff twice pure on the flushdraw, with nothing so he will have had some other outs as well, mostly a straightdraw, gutshotstraight or middlepair. In this case that would be something like 89 or JT-J9 (these of hearts got there), but IMHO that are the only hands, that merit a semicallbluff. KT got there, T9 got there a Flushdraw got there. By the way he may have had the odds for calling if he had something like JT or J9 of hearts. But the pull out this semicallbluff it certainly has to be a decent player, mostly I go with the simple explanation that he just got it.

Although the offered odds are very nice it still means he has to be bluffing in this spot for about 22% of the time, that is a lot for so few callbluffingopportunities. I think he is just valuebetting I mean you have 1100 left what could should he have done else...

[miami32]

Hero folds. He has a flush. I like shoving the turn.

[The_Bao]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero folds. He has a flush. I like shoving the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't say the results. i said flush hit on river, ie flush draw on the flop that hit on the river. and i've still yet to post results...

and i agree w/ you Larude i really don't like shoving the turn. sure, i can extract more money the times he doesn't hit his flush, but i don't think i get called often enough for it to be profitable, compared to just betting and giving him bad odds.

[Pokerfarian]

Does hero really only have 2400 chips at the start of the hand? In that case, you should just shove river.

[black666]

call all day long.

I can't see him drawing all the way without the Ah. If he shows you the flush, you simply make a note to value-bet villain more on future flush draws. I only see KThh with the right price to call down.