Razz - did he pair the hole?

[SGspecial]

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Is there anything more to razz than this?

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In razz, we (i.e. the good players) like to look at our opponents door cards on 3rd st to gain information. Our hero had a very good starting hand, which was made better by the fact that the board was swimming with 4, 5, and 6's. The villain (who may have been slowplaying or may have been truly weak on 3rd st) has caught a 2 and 3 and is betting the only decent board among the players in the pot, which btw has been bloated 4 ways.

This may be a lot to account for when you believe all there is to razz is betting your board, but what it adds up to is about 30-35% equity in a huge pot for our hero. I'll leave it up to each poster to decide whether that's favorable enough to make the call.

[*TT*]

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So there are 7 ways the opponent can have a made hand and 6 way he can have a pair, which means on average (when the opponent started with a 7) our hero's equity=7/13*5%+6/13*45%=23.4%.

There are 6.3 BBs in the pot on 5th and assuming the opponent bets every street the hero will be putting in 3 bets to win 9.3 bets, or 24.4% of the money. Thus, the decision is very close given the pot size.

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Excelent analysis Carlos. Looking at this hand I was very puzzled, its a tough one to play. I ran a sim assigning a range of 2 non-duplicated down cards for the two opponents of (8-7-)x because its very hard to further define their ranges with the information we have and I came up with nearly the same equity range 25.7%. When we compare the equity vs just the villain we find the hero increases to 31% - except we cannot account for the two cards 8 or lower which are most likely removed from the deck using this tool.

In short I think its margionally +EV to call, but we will likely have to reconsider on 6th - a position I don't like to be in often. Generally if I make it to 5th street in a pot of this size I am usually prepared to see 7th.

[bachfan]

Be careful - (8-7-)x on propokertools includes hands such as 844 and 566 - if you want all three unique, then you want (8-7-x) (maybe you knew this already - just checking)

- bachfan

[*TT*]

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Be careful - (8-7-)x on propokertools includes hands such as 844 and 566 - if you want all three unique, then you want (8-7-x) (maybe you knew this already - just checking)

- bachfan

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thanks, I must have been smoking something good yesterday because I already knew that! The results change the decision to a slightly -EV option - vs 2 opponents we are now 21% and vs just the villain we are just barely 25% (again we cannot discount the likely 2 cards 8 and under using this method).

[CarlosChadha]

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This is $1/2. I don't see any compelling reason, that this guy can't have started with a three-card bike, or an Eight, maybe a Nine, and maybe even a two-card hand. Perhaps he limped in intending to raise on the backside and then got skeered when it was two bets back to him. Or maybe he just sucks. I agree that a three-card Seven makes the most sense, and you might give that extra weight in a weighted average, but I wouldn't eliminate other possibilities.

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Yes, I agree that his range is more than just a 7...and limp cold calling a raise and a resraise is a sure sign that someone sucks in most forms of poker. I think that that opens up his range to include all the hands you mention above, with the 7s being the most highly rated.

I think the decision is really close either way, and should be made based upon reads, how confident the hero is in his skill edge over the other player, how well the hero plays in position, and how well the opponent plays out of position. The safe play is probably to just throw the hand away, and if you are multitabling it is probably the highest EV play. If you are just playing one table at a time, and are looking to improve your skills, making the call and forcing yourself to think on 6th and 7th is probably preferable.

Carlos