Razz - did he pair the hole?

[jjp]

I raised on third with a nice 3 cards and all my draws were live. Fourth was a brick, but with a caller before me I figured I had odds to peel and the fact that Seat 2 didn't complete on third made me think I couldn't be too far behind.
5th is the question. I'm drawing to an 8, but did he pair one of his babies? If he did, I'm likely ahead, right?
On 6th I'm ahead...I think.

Comments appreciated.

Razz ($1/$2), Ante $0.20, Bring-In $0.25 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street - (9.65 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (6.33 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (8.33 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises

River - (12.33 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (14.33 BB - $28.65)

[Andy B]

Third's fine. On fourth, the pot is plenty big enough that you have to peel, especially since you're closing the action. I think you have to fold fifth. You're drawing to an Eight, and the other guy is showing three wheel cards. It's not likely, but it's possible that you're drawing dead. He limped up front and then called another $1.75 on third street. I can't think of anything I'd do that with (I wouldn't limp first-in with all those low cards out), but presumably he has some sort of hand. Your hand started out nice but it's turned to crap. It's not worth paying another 2-3 BB to see this through.

I also don't like the raise on sixth. Unless there's something about this guy you haven't told us, there's no reason to believe that your Eight is good. Naturally, you bet your Six on the river. Nice hand.

I don't like your avatar.

[CarlosChadha]

[ QUOTE ]
Third's fine. On fourth, the pot is plenty big enough that you have to peel, especially since you're closing the action. I think you have to fold fifth. You're drawing to an Eight, and the other guy is showing three wheel cards. It's not likely, but it's possible that you're drawing dead. He limped up front and then called another $1.75 on third street. I can't think of anything I'd do that with (I wouldn't limp first-in with all those low cards out), but presumably he has some sort of hand. Your hand started out nice but it's turned to crap. It's not worth paying another 2-3 BB to see this through.

I also don't like the raise on sixth. Unless there's something about this guy you haven't told us, there's no reason to believe that your Eight is good. Naturally, you bet your Six on the river. Nice hand.

I don't like your avatar.

[/ QUOTE ]

The raise on 6th is surely wrong, but I'm not so sure that calling on 5th is incorrect. Since he didn't raise 3rd st. he probably didn't start with 3 to a 6 or better. Since he cold called 1.75 bets on 3rd he probably doesn't have an 8. (I'm not sure how accurate these assumptions are...anyone with more razz experience care to comment?). So that leaves him with having a 7 in the hole. Given the other out cards there are 4 Aces, 3 2s, 3 3s, 2 5s, and 1 6 that he could have in the hole with his 7. According to twodimes when the opponent has a pair our hero has about 45% equity and when his opponent has a made 7 he has about 5% equity. So there are 7 ways the opponent can have a made hand and 6 way he can have a pair, which means on average (when the opponent started with a 7) our hero's equity=7/13*5%+6/13*45%=23.4%.

There are 6.3 BBs in the pot on 5th and assuming the opponent bets every street the hero will be putting in 3 bets to win 9.3 bets, or 24.4% of the money. Thus, the decision is very close given the pot size. Whether to call or fold depends on if the Hero can use his skill and position can turn the break even situation into a +EV situation.

Regards,
Carlos

[chucky]

Very instructive analysis. Is there any chance that villian had some variant on 694/459/45t? It might explain open limp from 2nd position, as well as later street plays.

[DJ Sensei]

so you're assuming he's the kind of guy who just bets when his board is better

[mshalen]

[ QUOTE ]
so you're assuming he's the kind of guy who just bets when his board is better

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that 90% of your opponents?

[Andy B]

Is there anything more to razz than this?

[Andy B]

This is $1/2. I don't see any compelling reason, that this guy can't have started with a three-card bike, or an Eight, maybe a Nine, and maybe even a two-card hand. Perhaps he limped in intending to raise on the backside and then got skeered when it was two bets back to him. Or maybe he just sucks. I agree that a three-card Seven makes the most sense, and you might give that extra weight in a weighted average, but I wouldn't eliminate other possibilities.

[Bill King]

i actually dont mind the raise on 6th b/c you charge him the maximum on a lot of drawing hands.. if hes already got you beat then hes an idiot for just calling and letting you get there.. i never really have an issue with aggression unless hes extremely passive and is a showdown monkey.

[chucky]

what was his under?