NL25 FR: facing a river shove with baby flush on paired board

[subzero]

Raise preflop from this guy means a hand like TT+,AKs. If he has a flush, it's most certainly a higher flush. I doubt he's making this river play with just an overpair, so it's probably QQ. I would have just called the first river bet.

[KurtSF]

I'm not saying villain played it well, but I was feeling pretty certain he had QQ. I don't call this with the nut flush, read dependent of course. I can't fold an underhouse though (55 or something, but in that case I'm trying to get it in on the flop).

[roll]

So basically we're saying that villain's range is something like 99+ AQ+, MAYBE including 77 and 88, and the shove is just a boat every time?

After thinking on level 1 like that I can see how calling with even the nut flush here could be wrong.

2 last questions about this hand then.

1. Given all this, if villain bets 1/2 the pot on the turn am I folding my flush draw + gutshot draw because the board just paired?

2. When villain bets 2$ on the river and I make my flush is raising still wrong knowing that I will have to fold to a big reraise? When he bets 2$ I think his range still includes AQ, KK, AA, all of which might call my raise but not shove. So is the raise good or bad in this scenario?

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
So basically we're saying that villain's range is something like 99+ AQ+, MAYBE including 77 and 88, and the shove is just a boat every time?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying about 50% of his range is QQ. No matter what the rest of it is, I don't think you're looking too good.


[ QUOTE ]
1. Given all this, if villain bets 1/2 the pot on the turn am I folding my flush draw + gutshot draw because the board just paired?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its the (not recommended) slowplay on the turn that contributed to that read. If he 1/2 pots it he may be protecting something and is more likely to have hands like AA, KK, and AQ. You'll have to decide to call or not based on pot odds and implied odds (will he pay off?).

[ QUOTE ]
2. When villain bets 2$ on the river and I make my flush is raising still wrong knowing that I will have to fold to a big reraise? When he bets 2$ I think his range still includes AQ, KK, AA, all of which might call my raise but not shove. So is the raise good or bad in this scenario?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't put a lot of thought into this, so I may be wrong, but I'm of the belief that if you draw to a hand and hit it you have to bet it. I know other people will just call, and you probably (??) had enough equity earlier in the hand that this play is +EV, but I like your raise.

Once the shove comes for another $20 I'm pretty sure MHING, and that's when I like a fold.

[oakrdrzfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok to rephrase that question, what if I had the ace high flush in this scenario? Then there would be a lot of lower flushes that villain could have and I would certainly call his all in.

But where do I draw the line? Am I calling with the jack high flush here? what about the nine high flush?



[/ QUOTE ]

I ran this on PokerStove to answer your question regarding if you had the A high heart flush. I am only answering your question and am not sure I would call this hand. I assumed you had A3 hearts and villain either had QQ, 77, 55 or suited connected hearts. Results: Roughly a 3:2 dog

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12 games 0.005 secs 2,400 games/sec

Board: 5c Qh 2h 7h 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.667% 41.67% 00.00% 5 0.00 { Ah3h }
Hand 1: 58.333% 58.33% 00.00% 7 0.00 { QcQd, QcQs, QdQs, 7c7s, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 6h5h, 5h4h }

[roll]

Cool, so that would probably make it a call if villain is more like a 20/15 thats been observed to raise those hands utg AND I had the nut flush.

In this scenario I don't think any of the flush hands are even in villain's range.

[machine]

3:2 dog getting like 2/1 and your not calling? i call here with the nut flush. As you played just call river dont re-raise and fold pre-flop i only play suited connectors like 87s at the lowest, 43s is way to low.

[Specialwon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok to rephrase that question, what if I had the ace high flush in this scenario? Then there would be a lot of lower flushes that villain could have and I would certainly call his all in.

But where do I draw the line? Am I calling with the jack high flush here? what about the nine high flush?



[/ QUOTE ]

I ran this on PokerStove to answer your question regarding if you had the A high heart flush. I am only answering your question and am not sure I would call this hand. I assumed you had A3 hearts and villain either had QQ, 77, 55 or suited connected hearts. Results: Roughly a 3:2 dog

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12 games 0.005 secs 2,400 games/sec

Board: 5c Qh 2h 7h 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.667% 41.67% 00.00% 5 0.00 { Ah3h }
Hand 1: 58.333% 58.33% 00.00% 7 0.00 { QcQd, QcQs, QdQs, 7c7s, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5h5s, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 6h5h, 5h4h }

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this is that he shows up with these SC's like never in this situation. He raised UTG remember, that is not JTs he's holding.

So, even if you had the nut flush, this is still a clear fold because of his narrow starting range imo. Tough to lay that kind of hand down but it's the right move.

[machine]

on this board its a fold definetly. i dont think his range is that big. But as i stated above a simple river call gets you to showdown and folding this pre-flop saves alot of problems, with only 1 caller i would fold most suited connectors anyway