River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U

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Utz

I said it before. STOP OVERTHINKING EASY SPOTS! Just bet. Not betting here is burning money

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Oink,

Do I fold to a ck/raise on the River?

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Since a bet has so much value you really shouldnt consider how to handle a c/r before determining whether to bet. You could always call a c/r and a bet still has +EV.

That said you should of course choose the optimal action when he c/r'es. In this spot against a fairly unknown in the sense I havent been c/r by him before on the river and I havent SD vs him a lot I think its an easy call.


Now if the decision whether to value bet is closer and by that I mean MUCH closer than this spot. Then you should not bet before finding out how to handle a c/r. But it is of upmost importance to value bet good hands in position even though you will hate getting c/r'ed. Because of the simple fact that the bet has so much value its +EV EVEN IF YOU ALWAYS CHOSE THE WRONG DECISION AGAINST A C/R.


Say that you are in a spot with 2'nd set on the river and he checks to you. You estimate that if you bet villain will call with 80% prob and always with a worse hand, he will fold 15% and he will c/r 5% ALWAYS with a better hand (say top set).

This is a very special spot. But note that if you always call the c/r then you clearly chose the wrong action against his c/r. However the EV of the bet is still 0.8*1-0.05*2 = 0.7


DONT OVERTHINK 0.5/1 LHE. JUST PLAY STRAIGHTFOWARD AND VALUEBET THEM TO DEATH

[RunDownHouse]

It seems really weird to me to make a big deal of his vpip and pfr and then get paranoid about him opening Q9s in the HJ. One or the other is off; that hand wouldn't even occur to me otherwise, so the river is a definite bet.

[UtzChips]

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Very standard river bet here, He'll call you on the river with any pair. If he's got you beat, well unfortunately thats poker.

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I agree he'll call with any pair the vast majority of the time.

I'm wondering if his ck/raise on the River is profitable for him when he has the best hand?

As an exercise for myself, I'll put him on a range of hands and see how I stand going into the River.

If he'll play: 66+, A6s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s, A8o+,KJo+,QJo from the HJ, I think we would need to assume he'd muck (on the Turn at least):
A9o,KJo, and suited A9s/K9s/Q9s, not in hearts. I'll assume that he'll keep QJs/o since he has two overs and a Gutshot and praying I'm betting my AK.

I also don't think he'd play any AT/KT this way, so you have to remove those from his range.

If we say he'll hold onto his 66/77/99 because he thinks I'm on overs, that's 18 hands practically drawing dead, but JJ-AA would not be played this way.

So, going into the River, he may have:
66/77/88/99 = 24 (I am going to say he'll save the ck/raise with 88 until the River, but that's not what he had)

A6-A9s in hearts/diamonds/clubs he may have peeled one on the Flop, so on the Turn he'd still be holding:
A8s = 3
A6/7/9 in hearts = 3
QJs/o = 8 (I have the Q/heart, but I am going to say he'll call with all of them, praying I have AK, since he has a chance at a Straight.)
QTs = 2 (I have Qh)
JTs = 4 (I'm saying he only open/raises with JTo from the CO)

AT/KT he would not play this way.

I'll also say that since he thinks I'm on nothing but overcards and there are 7 bets in the Pot, that he'll peel one on the Flop to 98s clubs,diamonds,hearts.

So he has 3ea of 98s going into the River. One drawing to a Flush.

I'm going to say he mucked A8o/KJo.

I will also say, that he would play AKs/o(16)/AQs/o(8)/AJs/o(16) this way, giving him 40 hands.

So, we have 27 hands where he now has a Pair or will pair his Jack on the River and call:
66/77/99;(18) A8s;(2) QTs;(2) QJs;(2) 98s;(3)

We have x hands that are drawing to a Flush going into the River and will ck/raise the River:

A6s-A9/AJs-AKs = 7 (I assume that he would not slowplay TPTK when his Top Pair is vulnerable to a K/Q/J)
K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair)
JTs =1
98s = 1
Total Flush draws: 14

Then there is 88 (3) and JTs (4) that he'll ck/raise on the River, giving us a total of 21 hands he'll ck/raise with as opposed to 26 paired hands that he'll call with.

We'll also say he'll call with 1/2 of his AK hands, praying that is what we have. That's 8 more, which is more than we should, but I didn't assume he'd play 55 to the River.

So, we have 35 hands that he loses with and 21 that he wins with.

So, we win 1 BB 62.50% of the time and lose 2 BB's 37.50% of the time, if we call his ck/raise.

Multiply 37.50% * 2 and you'll find that we lose money long term calling his ck/raise when he has the best hand.

If we say that he always calls with his 16 AK hands and always calls down with 55, that's another 14 hands that he loses with.

So now its 49/21 in my favor and I win 69.01% of the time, and only have to pay 2 BBs 30.99% of the time, and squeak out a long term profit.

I had to edit the figures, as I counted adding all of the AKs and 55s as 10 more hands when it is actually 14.

[UtzChips]

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It seems really weird to me to make a big deal of his vpip and pfr and then get paranoid about him opening Q9s in the HJ. One or the other is off; that hand wouldn't even occur to me otherwise, so the river is a definite bet.

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Thanks for responding! I've done a lot of work on this. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Villain's stats are misleading, as I played less than 50 hands with him. As I stated in the beginning of my post, he had started to loosen up when the hand occurred.

I've posted my thoughts on his range and how he'd play them, narrowing down what he would go to the River with. Do you think it's reasonable?

[UtzChips]

Oink,

I did some work on a range of hands he'd play in the HJ, then narrowed down what he would continue to the River with. Tell me what you think.

The problem that I see with always betting an Overpair on the River for value, is that when you have an opponent (as I did here) who is playing 1 table and paying attention, notices that you are willing to bet the River when the River Card makes a Flush & Straight possible, as well making your Overpair vulnerable to Two Pair against JT etc.; well that opponent is going to ck/raise you on the River until you stop doing it.

[UtzChips]

I already know that some of the math is wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]
For one, He couldn't have peeled with JT of hearts on the Flop, as the J of hearts came up on the River. If I'm going to consider what hands he continues with on the Flop, I have to assume I know what is coming on the River.

HOWEVER, it's still fairly close.

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Very standard river bet here, He'll call you on the river with any pair. If he's got you beat, well unfortunately thats poker.

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I agree he'll call with any pair the vast majority of the time.

I'm wondering if his ck/raise on the River is profitable for him when he has the best hand?

As an exercise for myself, I'll put him on a range of hands and see how I stand going into the River.

If he'll play: 66+, A6s+,K7s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s, A8o+,KJo+,QJo from the HJ, I think we would need to assume he'd muck (on the Turn at least):
A9o,KJo, and suited A9s/K9s/Q9s, not in hearts. I'll assume that he'll keep QJs/o since he has two overs and a Gutshot and praying I'm betting my AK.

I also don't think he'd play any AT/KT this way, so you have to remove those from his range.

If we say he'll hold onto his 66/77/99 because he thinks I'm on overs, that's 18 hands practically drawing dead, but JJ-AA would not be played this way.

So, going into the River, he may have:
66/77/88/99 = 24 (I am going to say he'll save the ck/raise with 88 until the River, but that's not what he had)

A6-A9s in hearts/diamonds/clubs he may have peeled one on the Flop, so on the Turn he'd still be holding:
A8s = 3
A6/7/9 in hearts = 3
QJs/o = 8 (I have the Q/heart, but I am going to say he'll call with all of them, praying I have AK, since he has a chance at a Straight.)
QTs = 2 (I have Qh)
JTs = 4 (I'm saying he only open/raises with JTo from the CO)

AT/KT he would not play this way.

I'll also say that since he thinks I'm on nothing but overcards and there are 7 bets in the Pot, that he'll peel one on the Flop to 98s clubs,diamonds,hearts.

So he has 3ea of 98s going into the River. One drawing to a Flush.

I'm going to say he mucked A8o/KJo.

I will also say, that he would play AKs/o(16)/AQs/o(8)/AJs/o(16) this way, giving him 40 hands.

So, we have 27 hands where he now has a Pair or will pair his Jack on the River and call:
66/77/99;(18) A8s;(2) QTs;(2) QJs;(2) 98s;(3)

We have x hands that are drawing to a Flush going into the River and will ck/raise the River:

A6s-A9/AJs-AKs = 7 (I assume that he would not slowplay TPTK when his Top Pair is vulnerable to a K/Q/J)
K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair)
JTs =1
98s = 1
Total Flush draws: 14

Then there is 88 (3) and JTs (4) that he'll ck/raise on the River, giving us a total of 21 hands he'll ck/raise with as opposed to 26 paired hands that he'll call with.

We'll also say he'll call with 1/2 of his AK hands, praying that is what we have. That's 8 more, which is more than we should, but I didn't assume he'd play 55 to the River.

So, we have 35 hands that he loses with and 21 that he wins with.

So, we win 1 BB 62.50% of the time and lose 2 BB's 37.50% of the time, if we call his ck/raise.

Multiply 37.50% * 2 and you'll find that we lose money long term calling his ck/raise when he has the best hand.

If we say that he always calls with his 16 AK hands and always calls down with 55, that's another 14 hands that he loses with.

So now its 49/21 in my favor and I win 69.01% of the time, and only have to pay 2 BBs 30.99% of the time, and squeak out a long term profit.

I had to edit the figures, as I counted adding all of the AKs and 55s as 10 more hands when it is actually 14.

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[Oink]

This is my final input to any of your posts. IMO you overthink and overcomplicate simple things and refuse to accept that others may be right.


I disagree with your ranges.

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So, we have 27 hands where he now has a Pair or will pair his Jack on the River and call:
66/77/99;(18) A8s;(2) QTs;(2) QJs;(2) 98s;(3)


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What about KJ and AJ? While he may fold those a lot of ppl at 0.5/1 will call the turn.

Assuming he will never play AT and KT this way is 100% wrong using Dan's terminology

What about A8o and K8s?


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We have x hands that are drawing to a Flush going into the River and will ck/raise the River:

A6s-A9/AJs-AKs = 7 (I assume that he would not slowplay TPTK when his Top Pair is vulnerable to a K/Q/J)
K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair)
JTs =1
98s = 1
Total Flush draws: 14


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here you assume he peels with K7hh but above you dont think he has K8s? (no hearts)

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Then there is 88 (3)

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Has to be discounted for not c/r'ing the turn

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and JTs (4)

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So he would play JTs this way but not AT? Make up your mind whether he will c/r his TP or not on the flop.

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We'll also say he'll call with 1/2 of his AK hands, praying that is what we have.

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I think its safe to assume that AK as well as AQ is in his calling range on the river. Discounted yes. But he will be calling them sometimes.


EDIT: No its not close. But keep convincing yourself that it is.

1 MORE EDIT: there is only 2 ways he can have JTs. Look at the board

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K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair)

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There are only 3 of those. K7hh, K9hh and KQhh. The Jh and 8h are on the board

[Rednas]

As long as villain doesn't show any aggression, you should autobet every street.
He will call a lot more often (with a (pocket)pair or even ace high) than he will c/r.

[zalazane]

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the bet has so much value its +EV EVEN IF YOU ALWAYS CHOSE THE WRONG DECISION AGAINST A C/R.

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DONT OVERTHINK 0.5/1 LHE. JUST PLAY STRAIGHTFOWARD AND VALUEBET THEM TO DEATH

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[UtzChips]

With the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on Board, there are only 2 ways he could have JTs, not the 4 I gave him. So, he has only 19 ways to beat me on the River, instead of 21.

There are 27 paired hands he'll call with. 33 if you say he'll call down with 55.

I am a 33/19 favorite and win 1 BB on the River when I bet out 64.71% of the time, but lose 2 BBs 35.29% of the time, which is a losing proposition.

If he calls with 1/2 of his AK hands, that's another 8 losing hands for him.

Now, I am a 41/19 favorite. I win 1 BB 68.33% of the time and lose 2 BBs 31.67% of the time and squeak out a profit long-term.

Widen Villain's range and it gets better, however, the starting range I gave is approximately the top 18% of all starting hands.
It really doesn't matter if he starts with 100%, it's what he is willing to continue with after the Flop that matters, however, since I said he would not open/raise with JTo from the HJ I removed a lot of possibilities for him drawing out on me on the River.

If we say that Villain will open/raise in the HJ seat with JT offsuit, then that is another 7 hands (to go along with the 2 suited JTs, that beat me