2/4, Q-Q, turn - Page 2

Fat Nicky · #11 03-01-2006, 05:02 PM

We can put villain on a pretty small range of hands here. Basically AA-TT. AA and KK aren't really likely, wouldn't a TAG/rock usually cap with these hands. JJ seems like a very possible hand people are ruling out. I don't think a 5% PFR raises PF w/AT. Also, players with these types of stats will not usually be getting tricky on the turn w/overcards or a smaller pair, however, i think it's a mistake to totally rule these out.

Lets say he has the following hands:
TT- 60% (I think this is overestimating a bit, but i made it this high for other purposes)
AA/KK - 10%
JJ- 15%
AK/AQ/AT/99/88 - 5%

Equity calc:
TT - .6 * .04 = .024
AA/KK - .1 * .04 = .004
JJ - .15 * .95 = .14
AK/AQ/AT/99/88 - .05 * .828 = .04

Total Equity =~ 21%

so it's 4.5 -1 to call down getting ~21% equity (~4:1). It's close, but calling down doesn't seem like such a bad decision. And, this doesn't take into consideration the time we earn multiple bets on the river when we hit another Q.

Hope I did this somewhat right, comments?

BostonMetro · #12 03-01-2006, 05:12 PM

My range for him is probably:

TT (50%)
AA (20%)
KK (15%)
JJ (10%)
"AK" (5%)

85 x 0.04 + 10 x .95 + 5 * 0.8 = 17% ... throw it under

Fat Nicky · #13 03-01-2006, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AA (20%)
KK (15%)

[/ QUOTE ]

Combined, thats 35% he has AA or KK where he didn't cap pre-flop. This is very high IMO.

Also, assuming we use your figured, we're getting 4.5-1 on an 4.88-1 shot. The fact that we will earn more than 1 bet on the river when we spike a Q will make this ever closer.

BostonMetro · #14 03-01-2006, 05:22 PM

I think the fact that it's close (and that you can make a good case for calling down) is clearly the most interesting part of this thread. Even though many people's poker sense said to fold.

Lots of people will call the three-bet PF instead of capping to "disguise" their hand. I used to do that every single time - before I was a winning player, that is.

bobhalford · #15 03-01-2006, 05:55 PM

I think if villain had JJ you would have heard from him on the flop. In order for villain to have JJ, he would have had to have put hero squarely on AK/AQ in order to play JJ this way. I think that with a proper read, this is a great fold. I'm not sure if the OP had this read necessarily, but I think he is right to fear AA/KK/TT/88 a lot more than JJ or a pure bluff. Villain, knowing that the pot would be contested heads up, may have just called with AA/KK with the intention of check-raising the turn. The problem with this scenario is that villain would be bad not to realize that checking the turn offers hero a free card. So either villain is a bad player with AA/KK/JJ or he is typical with TT/88.

I think it's pretty close between folding and calling down. I like the fold because it's really hard to put villain on a hand we beat if we give him credit for being a decent player.