Super standard push, but why are we pushing?

[Nepthu]

If he is agg, you might get a king to fold (no Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])

[effinA]

u have FE
u have plenty of equity if called
its 100bbs

[JNash]

Case 1: he has made hand
A) If I shove, I get a tiny bit of fold equity, plus I get to see two cards on my draw to win the whole enchilada
B) If I call-push any turn card, the blanks will still get called but a diamond may not.
Net result: My EV decreases

Case II: He had air
A) Push will get him to fold
B) call-push gets him to fold
Outcome: identical

So isn't push better than call-push?

[jk3a]

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We push here because we have FE and a draw to the nuts that won't get paid off if we just call and hit.

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hes not folding here after c/ring this flop.

edit unless he just decided to do it with air thsi time

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Assigning a range of KT/55/flushes is a little ridiculous. Do the math. What % of the time does he have to fold to make a shove +EV.

[Kermit]

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We push here because we have FE and a draw to the nuts that won't get paid off if we just call and hit.

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hes not folding here after c/ring this flop.

edit unless he just decided to do it with air thsi time

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Assigning a range of KT/55/flushes is a little ridiculous. Do the math. What % of the time does he have to fold to make a shove +EV.

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well, what do YOU think he is c/r'ing the flop with?

[Fonkey123]

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We push here because we have FE and a draw to the nuts that won't get paid off if we just call and hit.

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hes not folding here after c/ring this flop.

edit unless he just decided to do it with air thsi time

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Assigning a range of KT/55/flushes is a little ridiculous. Do the math. What % of the time does he have to fold to make a shove +EV.

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well, what do YOU think he is c/r'ing the flop with?

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Exactly I think (like I stated) his range is either super polarized i.e. a huge hand 2pair+ he's not folding or a pure bluff, and this is how we fare against his calling range. Our equity of 34% doesn't change much at all if you add more random flushes, but I believe his calling range is close to this.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,870 games 0.005 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Td 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.239% 34.23% 00.01% 4405 1.50 { AdTs }
Hand 1: 65.761% 65.75% 00.01% 8462 1.50 { TT, 55, KTs, QdJd, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, KsQd }

[bilbo-san]

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We push here because we have FE and a draw to the nuts that won't get paid off if we just call and hit.

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hes not folding here after c/ring this flop.

edit unless he just decided to do it with air thsi time

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Assigning a range of KT/55/flushes is a little ridiculous. Do the math. What % of the time does he have to fold to make a shove +EV.

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How is figuring out this percentage "doing the math"??

You have to actually combine that number with a realistic Hand range (to figure out what percentage of that hand range he would actually fold) in order to "do the math". Figuring out what % of the time he needs to fold is the really easy part.

What you are basically saying is "[censored] it I'm too lazy to put him on a hand, he needs to fold X% of the time for this so blah I push".

By the way, OP:

Check the flop.

[spike13]

We have a decent chunk of equity in a semi biggish pot and we know he can't have the nuts. Obv. we are happiest when we take it down w/a shove, but have some clean outs if he calls us.

If you think you have a little FE, I lean to shove. If not, folding is ok I think. If he truly owns your soul, I'd switch tables (bankroll > pride)

[Nick Royale]

Your equity justify a push on the flop and a fold on the turn to a decent bet because:
1. If you call the flop he won't try to keep bluffing you often on the turn, meaning when he bets he's much more likely to call you than on the flop.
2. You obviously have about 15% worse equity.
3. If you hit he might get away from a really strong hand on the turn.

This means that when you call the flop and miss the turn you must fold to a bet. Putting it all-in on a blank turn you'll give worse than 2:1, and your draw probably is not better than 3.5:1. This means he'll have to fold tons, which he won't since he will no longer bluff with a high frequency.

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By calling the flop and pushing every turn; we give bluffs another chance to fire, or if a diamond hits he may turn his strong made hand i.e. set into a bluff.

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Not only do I think the first part rarely will happen, but also the second part is actually a reason not to take the line you suggest. Think about it this way. If you're planning on felting the hand no matter what, just calling and hitting the turn will make him able to get away from strong hands on a 4-flush board on the turn. So you won't get to stack him as often as if you had pushed the flop. He'll still get to stack you everytime you don't hit though. By calling the flop the only thing that will happen is that you let him get away when you're having the best of it, never the other way around.

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My thought is that by calling the check/raise, it's been my experience, and especially this villain, he'll continue to bet the turn 85%+ of the time.

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If this really is true, that when you call his big bluffraise, he'll continue to spew in a huge pot, and he'll be bluffing the flop a lot, then your line has merits. I just don't think a solid player will turn into a spew-bot with a bluff after you call the flop often enough.

[spike13]

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Check the flop.

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I like this.