Weak flush draw OOP. Raise flop?

[Fantam]

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Interesting poker math situation: How often must villain fold on the turn for this bet to be profitable?

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if this were a pure bluff, we risk 1 to win 4.5, so we would need to win 1/5.5 times or 18.1% of the time.

since this is a sem-bluff, we have outs to improve. let's assume all 9 flush outs and 6 non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] straight outs are good and that nothing else gives us a winning hand for a total of 15 outs. there are 46 unseen cards, so we improve 15/46 times, or 32.6% of the time. (32.6% is also our pot equity).

one way to look at it is that our 1 BB bet really only costs us 100%-32.6% or 67.4% of a bet, or .674 BB. thus, we are risking .674 BB to win 5.5 BB, and our semi-bluff must work only .674/5.5 times, or 12.2% of the time.

this ignores the fact that if Villain calls the turn, he will usually call the river when we improve, so we win another bet 32.6% of the time, which drives the breakeven point even lower. i'll have to think some more about how to do the math on this parlay.

someone please let me know if i "[censored] the dog", to quote the eminently-quotable Dr. Coxlax.

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Nice straightforward and well explained calculation.

Looking at this hand a bit more, it seems likely to me that UTG probably had a higher flush than hero's when he bet the river.

I could envisage him betting the flop and calling the turn with other hands, perhaps such as A8s or 99 or 77, but I would not expect him to bet the river with them when the 3rd flush card fell.

I also think that we would have heard from anything better than those hands before the river.

So I think that I would have preferred to just call his river bet as opposed to raise.

[unterfish]

I guess the PF limp is -EV. Wouldnt do it in MP. On the CO or BU I would probably do it, but not in MP.
Anyways, your flop raise was ok against 5 opponents.
Your turn bet as well.
I would cap the river, though, cause a better flush is just ridiculous.

[Aaron W.]

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Interesting poker math situation: How often must villain fold on the turn for this bet to be profitable?

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if this were a pure bluff, we risk 1 to win 4.5, so we would need to win 1/5.5 times or 18.1% of the time.

since this is a sem-bluff, we have outs to improve. let's assume all 9 flush outs and 6 non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] straight outs are good and that nothing else gives us a winning hand for a total of 15 outs. there are 46 unseen cards, so we improve 15/46 times, or 32.6% of the time. (32.6% is also our pot equity).

one way to look at it is that our 1 BB bet really only costs us 100%-32.6% or 67.4% of a bet, or .674 BB. thus, we are risking .674 BB to win 5.5 BB, and our semi-bluff must work only .674/5.5 times, or 12.2% of the time.

this ignores the fact that if Villain calls the turn, he will usually call the river when we improve, so we win another bet 32.6% of the time, which drives the breakeven point even lower. i'll have to think some more about how to do the math on this parlay.

someone please let me know if i "[censored] the dog", to quote the eminently-quotable Dr. Coxlax.

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Teampursuit saw something here that you didn't, which was the fact that a better flush draw may be out there. A better flush draw will

a) Never fold
b) Hurt you on the end for an extra bet or two

This takes away the implied odds somewhat of hitting your flush AND takes away from your bluffing success. Giving yourself 9 full flush draw outs is probably too much. I would have given myself only 8 flush outs. As your flush draw gets worse, say 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] that you misclicked preflop, you need to discount your flush more and more. I would never discount it to less than 7 in a heads up situation. In a very multiway pot, I might knock it down to 6.

[Spurious]

That preflop limp is nice [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
Flop i wouldnt raise because you dont get a higher flushdraw to fold and spiking a 9 isnt what you want to do i guess.
Turn is alright you got a monsterdraw now.
River: Did he really have a higher flush? His line looks like NFD or 2ndNFD.